Sciencey Goodness

Lately a lot of people have been asking me, "Sam, what's the deal with all these storms?" or "Why has it been raining so much?"  The scientific answer to those questions are that Vulcan and Zeus are out to get us and enjoy raining down thunderbolts upon our happy little centaur party with Bacchus.  Oh wait, that's from Fantasia.  The real answer is that with all this moisture and heat that's been with us lately, it takes very little effort on the atmosphere's part to generate storms.  It's also why the storms have been so erratic.  With no obvious forcing mechanisms, i.e. a front or a low pressure system, storms tend to spring up pretty randomly.  (there are countless reasons for this, but I won't bore you with them here)  Unfortunately, these conditions will persist for the next few days.

Today not much is going on.  A weak, slow moving cold front will approach us from the west this evening and may kick off a few showers and t-storms but nothing substantial.  The front slowly moves east Tuesday and we get another lovely high pressure system building off the Carolina coast.  You all know what this means, more heat and humidity for NYC.  That high will remain in effect until late Thursday when we see another cold front move in from the NW.  Once this second front moves through, conditions look to stabilize a bit and we may see some "normal" weather for a few days, if such a thing exists in the summer during the 21st century.

Back to today:  a trough associated with the aforementioned cold front sits off to our west.  Like I said it's slowly inching it's way east and will probably not effect us until later today, more into the evening hrs.  We still have a lot of moisture in the air and any storms that pop up could be both slow moving and contain heavy rain; a little different than the storms we've seen over the past few days.  Storms may continue into late tonight and early tomorrow morning.  Once the storms dissipate we should have a pleasant day tomorrow.  Lower humidities and sunshine... on a Tuesday... what a waste.

Today:  Cloudy with slight, slight chance of afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 86.  Winds SW @ 9-12 mph.

Tonight:  Scattered showers and t-storms.  Evening lows in the upper 70s, down to 68 by morning.  Winds W @ 6 mph.

Tomorrow:  Scattered clouds but otherwise sunny.  High 84.  Winds S @ 8-10 mph.

Tomorrow night:  Clear with a few clouds.  Low 68.  

Wednesday:  Sunny.  High 87.  

Sunday Edition

Everyone rejoice!  I'm coming to you with a special Sunday posting.  I don't know how many people will actually read it, because my track record for updating the blog on weekends is not exactly stellar.  But we may have some interesting weather happening today so maybe someone will be curious and check to see what's going on.

What's going on is heat and humidity are still dominating the scene.  A large upper-level low is moving out of the Great Lakes region and will be the culprit for unsettled weather over the next few days.  Today looks to be an especially good chance for heavy rain. There is clearly a great deal of moisture in the air and we have a relatively unstable atmosphere.  The heaviest rains may be to our north, in the Catskills, but it's very likely we could see downpours all the way south through the city and into southern NJ.  Severe storms may be likely but it looks like the biggest concern will be torrential rain within any individual storm cells.  Any developing storms will probably move through quickly, so it will not be a all-day rain event.

Tomorrow looks to be a similar scenario, although with a lower chance of heavy rain, however, tomorrow night a cold front will move through the area and that will hopefully give us a bit of a reprieve from the heat and humidity.

Today:  Showers and t-storms throughout the day, most likely in the afternoon.  High 85.  Winds S @ 9-13 mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms.  Low 73.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tomorrow:  Cloudy with some sun.  Afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 84.

Last Soccer Entry... Maybe

Anyone who watched the soccer game yesterday saw two things: the lovable Russians were sent home (who would've ever thought Russians could be lovable?) and the producers at ESPN finally got their act together and showed me some stylish, Euro-weather.  I'll bet it has an accent.

Back here, across the pond, we could be in for some stylish weather of our own.  Unfortunately, the main point concerning our forecast is the heat.  As Elaine from Seinfeld would say, "and the heat, my God the heat!"  High pressure will continue to push warm, tropical air into our region for the next several days, making this weekend a bit uncomfortable.  And as if that wasn't bad enough news, the sky looks to remain quite unsettled as well.

A series of small disturbances will wreak havoc on our area through Sunday.  By Monday a large, upper-level system will move out of the Great Lakes and should give us a reprieve from the hot, stickiness.  Until then, get yourself a fan and a cool beverage and suck it up.

Today:  Hot and humid.  Likely afternoon t-storms, some may be severe.  Downpours, strong winds, wrath of God, etc.  High 88.  Winds SW @ 7-10 mph.

Tonight:  Showers/t-storms likely through the evening hrs.  Clearing late.  Evening lows in the mid 80s and only going down to 76 by morning.  Winds W @ 4-6 mph.

Saturday:  Hot and humid with afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 89.  Winds S @ 9-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Evening showers and t-storms.  Low 74.

Sunday:  Showers and t-storms.  Slightly cooler.  High 85.

ESPN Drops the Ball

For anyone who watched the soccer game yesterday, you know that the ESPN crew claimed lightning knocked out the international feed.  And what horrible timing.  Why couldn't it have happened during one of those boring Italy games?  But the saddest part of this story was the fact that when they came back on the air, all I could think was, "Why don't they show some footage of this storm!"  I am such a dork.

Luckily, I may get to see some real-life storms today.  Currently, there is a cluster of showers moving ENE out of the Ohio Valley.  Although right now they're almost only showers, there is a chance of t-storms popping up later today.  This rain should be making its way into our area over the next few hrs or so, some might already be occurring in parts of the Bronx.  This round will probably last into the early afternoon and then we'll see a bit of a break.  After this break is where things get dicey.  We have a few elements in place for some late afternoon/early evening storms but are lacking in a major trigger to really get things going.  It's still possible for us to see some medium/strong storms this evening.

Any storminess should die down this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the SW.  This should bring in some warmer air from the south and make things a bit sticky for the next few days.  Lows tonight will only drop down to the mid 70s and tomorrow we heat up into the low 90s with possible heat indices in the mid-90s.  As Rachel Ray would say, "Yum-O!"

Today:  Morning rain showers with clearing in the afternoon.  Evening t-storms likely.  High 84.  Winds SW @ 8-12 mph.

Tonight:  Storms early on, then clearing.  Warm and humid.  Evening lows in the low 80s down to 74 by morning.  Winds NW @ 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Hot and humid.  Late-day showers/t-storms possible.  High 92.

Saturday:  Warm with possible afternoon storms.  High 89.

Sunday: Showers and t-storms.  High 85.

I Have Issues

Meteorologists are often faced with situations that are a bit enigmatic (warm air rises, but rising air cools and then sinks; but sinking air heats up and rises and so . . . I quit).  Likewise, the types of weather situations most meteorologists enjoy are counterintuitive, like the fact that I get excited about weather that could potentially kill me yet am bored to death by weather that is easy to forecast and pleasant to enjoy.  And the later, my friends, is what we have in store this afternoon.

Today's forecast is as easy as (insert dirty joke here).  No major fronts or anything interesting to speak of.  The jet stream is almost completely level, running straight from coast to coast over southern Canada.  This will allow warm air to build up across almost the entire US, with the exception of the Pacific NW through Saturday.

We are in for an absolutely beautiful day here in NY.  Low to mid 80s with relatively low humidities and clear skies should make today a great day for just about anything (except maybe storm chasing).  A high pressure system over Savannah, GA will build in later on today and tonight and that will push warm air into the NE tomorrow and Friday.  

Tomorrow, a shortwave system approaches from the west and gives us a good chance for showers/t-storms, some of which could be severe, but with the jet stream so far to our north they will probably be smaller isolated storms.  Unstable, humid air will be the story for Thursday and Friday.  Friday, we get another shortwave passing through and it will look like a carbon-copy of tomorrow.  Please shoot me any questions, comments, concerns, praise, criticism, etc.  This pleasant weather is boring me, I may have to leave my computer and go outside.

Today:  Clear and pleasant.  High 85.  Winds W @ 7-12 mph.

Tonight:  Clear.  Evening lows in the upper 70s down to 70 by morning. Winds SW 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and warm, likely afternoon showers and t-storms.  High 86.  Winds W @ 10-13 mph.

Friday: Scattered clouds with afternoon showers and t-storms likely.  High 88.

S-M-R-T

Mother Nature has certainly been doing everything she can to try and stump me these last few days.  There's just one thing I want to say to her:  Good job!  It's about time somebody threw me off for once.  I'm normally so perfect with my forecasts that it's refreshing to know that the environment can still throw me a curve ball when it wants to.  However, I'm afraid today I return to my normal dominance.

The cold front I was discussing yesterday is moving through even as we speak, although you probably won't notice it.  The CF is also bringing some cooler, drier air down with it, which should result in a rather pleasant day or two for us.  There is a slight chance of some afternoon showers but I'm assuming they will be small, short-lived, random ones at best.  Tonight, high pressure builds in from the SW which should keep things generally dry and clear through Wednesday.  Thursday that high pushes warm air into the region and we start to feel those lovely hot/humid conditions that make NYC's summers are so famous.  Highs Thursday could reach 90.  Yum.

Today:  Sunny with a few clouds and a slight chance of an afternoon shower/t-storm.  High 81.  Winds NW @ 12-15 mph.

Tonight:  Clearing.  Evening temps in the mid 70s with a low of 64.  Winds NW @ 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny with a few clouds.  High 85.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Thursday:  Warm and humid.  High 89.  

Soccer Analogies (they're all I know)

Alright, so I guess karma came back to bite me yesterday for my comments on Friday regarding weekend forecasting.  We clearly had showers and t-storms instead of plain old rain.  My bad.  But there were several good things that can be taken from the weekend:  Saturday was beautiful and we had some cool storms yesterday.  Plus, Italy lost in the Euros (sorry Geoff).  I'm sorry but they are to soccer what fog is to weather; boring, ugly, and pretty greasy.

Today, we have the Portugal of weather; a sexy, exhilarating start and then most likely fading out towards the end of the day.  As you can clearly see, and probably feel, we have a lot of moisture in the air.  That will act as the fuel we need to kick off some storms later this morning and then again this afternoon.  A trough moving in from the NW will provide that extra kick (yet another soccer reference) to spawn more storms this afternoon. 

With the good supply of moisture, the daytime heating, and the trough placement, storms could be severe this afternoon.  However, like yesterday, they will probably also be spotty.  Midtown could be sunny while the Bronx and Westchester could have hail, downpours and lightning.  The storms may be a bit more frequent today than yesterday but it looks like a fairly similar event.

Tonight the storms die down in the mid-evening hours and we see some clearing after midnight.  Tomorrow's weather may look similar to today's.  A cold front moves in from the west and we get another opportunity for late afternoon showers and t-storms.  Luckily, after the front passes tomorrow, we should clear up on Wednesday and dry out for a few days.

Today:  Some fog early will burn off by mid/late morning.  Expect an early round of showers/t-storms (noon-1pm) then another round later on in the afternoon/early evening hrs.  Heavy rains and strong storms can be expected.  High 80.  Winds S @ 6-10mph.

Tonight:  Showers/t-storms likely early on, then clearing overnight.  Evening temps in the upper 70s with a low of 69.  Winds W @ 5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Clouds with afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 82.  Winds NW@ 9-13 mph.

Wednesday:  Clear with a few scattered clouds.  High 86.

Stop Whining!

Lately people have been complaining that I do not make weekend forecasts.  I want to say two things: 1) this is free people, what right do you have to complain?  I am providing a service, free of charge and all you can do is say is "Why don't you tell us what Sunday will be like? Meh, I want to know which day is better to go to the park. Wah!"  Gimme a break, jerks.  And 2) shoot, I forgot what my second opinion was after that rant.

I apologize for making all this "slight chance of shower/t-storm" BS.  It's very "Tesch-y" of me.  Unfortunately, I don't have a choice.  Convection is a very random, difficult to predict event, much like the Euro Championships (at least for my pool).  Today we have a similar story. We're starting off with sun and a little haze which should burn off by mid-moring.  Some unstable air will develop later this afternoon, leading to some isolated showers/t-storms.  I think most should stay off to our north and we'll remain dry, but I can't rule out a rogue party crasher.

Tonight the rain, if any, will end pretty early and we begin to see the effects of the Bermudan high which is developing off the coast of SC and GA.  This will funnel warm, humid air up the coast for Saturday.  Slightly above average temps with this scenario, nothing too unbearable though.  Yesterday it looked like Saturday was going to be another convective head-scratcher but it looks more like our air mass should remain relatively stable and we'll stay dry.

Early Sunday a low in the western Carolinas will lumber up through the mid-Atlantic states into New England.  This with the addition of the warm, wet Atlantic air will likely create a rainy Sunday.  NWS is being wishy-washy with their forecast and can't decide between a rain event or a shower/t-storm event.  I expect it to be more of a rain event.  We'll just have to wait and see who's right (wow, this is just like a reality show!)  In any case, expect some precipitation from late Sat night through the evening on Sunday.  So don't complain to me on Monday that you waited until Sunday to have your fun.

Today:  Sunny with a possible isolated shower/t-storm in the afternoon.  High 78.  Winds SW @ 9-11mph.

Tonight:  Possible evening shower then clearing.  Evening lows in the mid 70s down to 65 by morning.  Winds SW to W @ 5 mph.

Saturday:  Sunny and warmer.  High 85.  Winds S @ 10-13 mph.

Saturday Night:  Possible late-evening shower or t-storm.  Low 69.

Sunday:  Rain.  High 77.  

Honest Mistake

I can't believe nobody called me out on not predicting a low temperature this morning.  Shame on you guys.  I'm very disappointed.  Naturally, the low I would have predicted was right on, as was my predicted high yesterday, 73.   Boo-ya!

Canadian low pressure is still in place over Quebec, but most of it's moisture is situated to our north.  With that said, today should be dry and clear.  Nothing too exciting going on, unfortunately.  

Tonight the low begins to push north, but the trough still remains.  We're going to have another shortwave come through the area tomorrow afternoon.  Tomorrow looks like it may be similar to yesterday, although this shortwave will probably arrive a little bit earlier than yesterday's, which may mean less rain since it won't have as much time and ammo to develop.

The weekend looks a little more rough.  We get rid of the low/trough-iness but we get a Bermudan high that will pump warm, humid air into the region.  Saturday should be sunny and warm early with a good possibility of convective storms springing up in the afternoon amidst the warm, wet air.  Sunday may be even worse as another trough moves in from the west and increases the likelihood for a more widespread rain event.  Not my best weekend work.  Lo siento.

Today:  Sunny with a few clouds.  High 75.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tonight:  Cloudy.  Evening lows in the low 70s down to 63 by morning.  Winds SW @ 4-6 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny early then clouds and chance for afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 78.  Winds W @ 9-11 mph.

Saturday:  Sun and clouds with afternoon showers and t-storms.  High 87.  Low 67.

Sunday:  Showers and t-storms.  High 79.  Low 69.

Rainbow in da Heights!

Just thought I'd post a picture of the lovely rainbow that popped up over the heights this evening after the rain.  Who says there's nothing pretty in da Heights?!  And maybe if one of you chase after it, you might find the leprechaun and his pot of gold hangin' in the Bronx...  but watch out, those Bronx leprechauns are tough!

B.O.B.N.

One of the reasons meteorologists are so awesome is that we get to ruin people's day and piss everyone off, which happens to be one of my favorite things to do as a meteorologist.  Take today, for instance.  Looks nice right?  Cool, dry, sunny.  Good day shaping up, wouldn't you say? Eghn, wrong! (it's hard to put the "buzzer" sound to words)

Currently, we have a decent-sized upper-level low over French-Canadia that, while it is bringing cooler temps to our region, is also going to be responsible for some unsettled, unruly weather over the next 3 days.  Nothing severe or serious like we've seen the last few weeks (aww shucks) but certainly enough to be annoying, from a weather standpoint.  Today we'll see a shortwave system moving from upstate NY/western PA into our area this afternoon.  Currently it's draped across central NY, making rain from Utica to Buffalo, and moving slowly to the SE.  I'm hoping most of it will pass to our north, but I promise nothing.  My guess is the rain will come through sometime around 2pm and should be more or less outta here by the early evening hrs (7pm?). 

Tonight we get a little bit of clearing that lasts until tomorrow afternoon when we see another shortwave passing through.  Thurs night and Friday look to be carbon copies of the next 24 hrs as well, and then Saturday we get another lovely Bermudan high that will pump warm, moi... excuse me... warm, wet air into the NE.  Not quite as gross as 2 weeks ago, but it will be a return to seasonal temps and higher humidities.

Today:  Sunny then clouds and showers.  High 73.  Winds SW 8-10 mph.

Tonight:  Showers ending early then cloudy.  Winds W 5-9 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny early then a chance of afternoon showers.  High 74.  Winds W @ 7-9 mph.

Please Read

Another solid day of forecasting by yours truly.  I myself saw two distinct series of showers/t-storms roll through the area yesterday.  One around 4:30 and one around 7:00.  And we had a high of 79, off by only one from my prediction.  I think I should work for Miss Cleo and read people's fortunes.

Today is shaping up to be a swell day.  The slow moving cold front that was responsible for yesterday's rain is finally moving out this afternoon and behind it there should be some cooler, drier air waiting for us.  There is a very slight chance of a shower this afternoon, however, with the cold front still lingering (don't be fooled by my weather icon).  It doesn't have much to work with in the way of moisture like it did yesterday, but if it gets just enough, the other elements like daytime heating and the necessary lifting conditions could be in place for a few convective showers or t-storms.  Personally, I don't think we'll have any but I'm not that sure of it to completely rule it out.  Take an umbrella with, it can't hurt you.  Unless you accidently poke yourself in the eye or something.

After today a low pressure from the Great Lakes will bring us cool and unsettled weather over the next few days.  Lots of unpredictability.  I heart it.

Today:  Clouds mixed with sun.  Slight chance of an afternoon/evening storm.  High 81.  Winds W @ 10-16mph.

Tonight:  Possible early evening shower, then clear.  Evening temps in the low 70s down to 61 by morning.  Winds NW @ 6-8mph.

Tomorrow:  Scattered clouds and cooler.  Chance of an afternoon storm.  High 71.  Winds W @ 8-12mph.

Back in Black

I have returned from yet another midwest wedding to remind everyone that I was off by a total of 2 degrees the entire weekend.   And it looks like my prediction of afternoon/evening showers on Saturday came true as well.  Man, it gets kinda boring being right all the time.  I just wish mother nature could stump me once or twice to add some excitement to my life.  Although I shouldn't speak too soon because she may be throwing me a monkey wrench with today's forecast.

Main issue today looks to be the timing of our precip.  NWS and that chick from CNN are saying sometime after 1pm.  I think it may be a bit later, myself.  A moderate/strong cold front is approaching from the NW from southern Ontario.  Showers and thunderstorms are already developing along the southern edge of the front in NE WV.  In our area, we have some foggy-haziness that should burn off somewhat in the next few hrs.  Interior NJ and PA already have clearing which should supply the front with some heating to fire our afternoon storms.  I think they'll probably start up in the city around 3-4pm.  There will probably be two rounds of storms, looking at current radar and satellite pics.  The 2nd round will probably go off later in the evening, I'm thinking 7 or later.  There is a likely chance we could see another squall line storm develop, with lightning and damaging winds like last Wed.  Hopefully this time I'll get to see it.

Today:  Morning haze with a bit of midday sun, then showers and t-storms this afternoon and evening.  Good possibility for severe storms.  High 79.  Winds S @ 8-12mph.

Tonight:  Evening showers and t-storms ending after midnight.  Evening lows in the upper 70s down to 66 by morning.  Winds W @ 5-8mph.

Tomorrow:  Clouds and sun.  Maybe, maybe an afternoon storm.  High 79.  Strong NW winds @ 13-17mph.

Wednesday:  Mixture of clouds and sun, but cooler.  High 74. 

Homage

Reid Bryson spoke at one of my senior seminars. It was probably the most interesting seminar I had. He discovered the jet stream while in the army in WWII. While giving his talk he said several times, "You have to believe me because everyone else who was there is dead." Good article.

Midwest Holiday

Ok everybody, I'm giving you an extended, yet abridged forecast.  High pressure has now assumed a Bush-like control on our weather (no tax refunds though).  This scenario looks to stay in place until Friday when a weak warm front moves in from the west.  Not much moisture involved so we should stay dry.  Once this WF passes, however, warm humid conditions return to the Big Apple.  A cold front will slide in Saturday evening and this looks to be our next best chance of rain.  Until then, pretty pleasant conditions actually.  I, however, will be off to the midwest to chase storms . . . and by that I mean go to yet another wedding.  Perhaps no one will see me sneak out once the bar opens up?

Today:  Clear.  High 83.  Winds N @ 8-10mph.

Tonight: Clear with a few clouds in the evening hours.  Low 64.  Winds N@ 4-6mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny.  High 82.  Winds E @4-8mph.

Saturday: Sunny with afternoon/evening showers and t-storms.  High 89.

Sunday:  Sunny and cooler.  High 84.

Samcast will be on hiatus until Sunday.  Until then, look here for your weather.

Speaking of UFOs...

Caption: An altocumulus standing lenticularis cloud appears to hover over a pile of rock south of Tower.  [Bob King/News Tribune]

Strange that today, not only does Katie post that she saw crazy lights coming from Jersey last night during the thunderstorm, but I also get an email from Sam's friend Adam with this bazar picture attached...  Perhaps these extraterrestrials are smarter than we give them credit for- they come during crazy weather so all that any crazy phenomena (lights, sounds, probing) can just be blamed on the weather man.  Or maybe the weather men are just extraterrestrials- that might explain a lot.

Foiled Again by the MTA

Last night, when the storms came through, your fearless meteorologist was out in the field, right in the thick of it.  And by that I mean I was trapped on a misguided E train and had no idea of what was going on.  I shouldn't say had no idea what was going on.  I predicted (to my wife who can back me up on this) a passing squall line about 10 min before it happened.  So we got in the subway and then were trapped there for about an hour and I missed the whole thing.  Always a bride's maid. . . luckily, several of my friends gave me their eyewitness accounts of the storm (not nearly as cool as seeing it in person, no offense guys).  I felt like Rob Marciano.

Today's weather won't be nearly as exciting but won't be nearly as miserable as it's been recently either.  The cold front that came through last night and almost instantly (temps dropped 19 degrees in less than an hour at La Guardia) killed our heat wave as moved offshore.  High pressure is now building in from the upper Midwest and should remain in place until Friday.  Another cold front will drop down tonight from Canada but has essentially no moisture to work with, so no stormy goodness.  Without the moisture, the humidity will also go down making today and tonight much more comfortable even though temperatures will still be in the upper 80s.  We continue to cool off tomorrow with lower dewpoints and a more northerly flow.  The next chance for rain won't be until Saturday when a warm front pushes in from the west.  This will also make for a more humid, sticky weekend but not nearly as bad as the one we just had.  But even if it is gross out, I'll be in Wisconsin drinking beer and eating cheese.  Jealous?

Today:  Sunny and clear.  Less humid.  High 87.  Winds W @ 8mph.

Tonight:  Clear and breezy.  Evening lows in the upper 70s down to 68 by morning.  Winds N @ 8-12mph.

Tomorrow.  Sunny.  High 85.  Winds N/NE @ 8-10mph.

Dennis Rodman and the Inuits

It's clear that I was a bit overzealous with yesterday's high temp.  But as a meteorologist, living in the NE, you rarely get to post a triple digit high.  I didn't want to post it, but I still wanted to get noticed for doing so.  I kind of relate it to leading the NBA in technical fouls; not something to be proud of, but still extremely noteworthy, and somebody's gotta do it.

Since yesterday's high only reached 96 I'm going to be a bit more cautious with today's forecast.  This will be our last really hot day; the strong high off the Carolina coast is still forcing hot humid air into the NE.  This high will move further out to sea as a cold front moves in for us tonight.   

With all this hot, humid air, the atmosphere is going to be very unstable.  Saturday and Sunday both brought us some convective storms, which were basically just isolated, random showers and t-storms.  Today, with the continued unstable air coupled with the addition of the cold front, the chance for widespread and organized storms is much more likely.  The SPC has put out a slight/moderate risk for severe t-storms later today.  Score!

The passage of this cold front also means more seasonable conditions are on the way.  Once the cold front passes another ridge of high pressure will build, this one from the west, which will bring us cooler, drier winds from the north instead of those hot, humid ones from the south.  Temperatures and dewpoints will be much lower, especially during the overnight hours.  It will still be warm but it will feel like a cool Eskimo kiss compared to what we've deal with recently.  Looks like dry, cooler weather for the rest of the week as well; a warm front will move in from the west on Friday, which will be our next chance for any wet weather.

Today:  Hot and humid, a decent chance for an afternoon shower or t-storm.  High 96.  Winds S-SW 8-12mph.

Tonight: Showers and t-storms in the evening hours (my guess is around 6-8pm) tapering off after midnight.  Evening temps in the upper 80s down to 70 by morning.  Winds NW @ 9-12mph.

Tomorrow: Clear and a bit cooler.  High 86.  Winds W @ 8-9mph.

Wednesday:  Clear.  High 84.

Schwetty Weather

As a native Minnesotan, I neither like nor am I capable of handling sustained hot and humid temperatures.  With that said, it does bring me great pleasure to say we may be breaking the triple-digit mark today.  Woo-hoo record highs!  Hey, I need to find some bit of pleasure in all of this hot, grossness.

Today looks to be the hottest day yet with temperatures hovering around 100 degrees.  Humidity levels with be high once again as well.  With the humid, unstable air we could very well see some afternoon showers/t-storms again like we've seen the past couple of days.  During the day however, it will be hot.  The NWS has issued an Excessive Heat Warning with heat indices around 105.  W/SW winds will keep temperatures along LI should be a bit cooler but it will still be quite warm.  Lows tonight will be lucky to get out of the 80s.  Much of the same tomorrow, unfortunately, maybe not quite as hot as today but still well into the 90s.  Relief may come Wednesday in the form of a cold front from the upper midwest but with our strong high pressure system (the one making things so pleasant) it may take longer to move eastward, so we may not see relief until Thursday.  Keep cool my babies!

Today:  Sunny and hot.  High 100.  Winds W@9-12mph

Tonight: A few clouds and very warm.  Low 79.  Winds @ 5-7mph

Tomorrow: Sunny and hot again.  High 97.  Winds SW @ 9-13mph.

Repent!

Well folks, I hope your affairs are in order and you are all well-hydrated because today will be our last day of cool, pleasant weather.  Clouds will cover the skies for the early part of the day.  We have a large high-pressure system centered east of the Carolinas which will begin to advect warm, wet Atlantic air up the coast into our region.  That should start late this afternoon/evening; look for dewpoints to increase and our temps won't budge until morning, and even then they don't go down much.

Saturday looks to be quite warm with the southerly flow in full-effect as temps climb into the low 90s.  However, for those taking in the Belmont Stakes, LI should be a little bit cooler with the southerly ocean breeze keeping temps in the mid/upper 80s.

Sunday looks to be probably the hottest day of the weekend with the high pressure ridge centered over NY.  Temps Sun will be in the mid 90s going back down to the low 90s on Monday.  We don't get a reprieve from the hotness until Tuesday.  

A few final tidbits on this weekends forecast:  This air will not only be quite hot but humid as well, so nighttime temps won't fall much.  Saturday's and Sunday's low temps could very well be in the upper 70s (77), for a LOW.  This hot humid air also means a rogue afternoon t-storm may be possible.  I think Sunday is the most likely day.  So be aware that one could pop up during the afternoon.  Other than that, stay cool and classy New York.

Today: Cloudy and cool with some afternoon sun.  High 74. Winds S @ 8-10mph.

Tonight:  Scattered clouds.  Evening temps in the low 70s, down to 69 by morning.  Winds S @ 5mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and warm.  High 94.  Winds S/SW @ 8-12mph.

Tomorrow Night: Clear and muggy:  Low 76. 

Sunday:  Hot and humid:  High 97.  

Crappizza!

Remember a few years ago when Domino's came out with those new delivery bags that were supposed to keep your pizzas piping hot for an entire fortnight?  Those bags were called the "Heat Wave", which happens to be the story for this forecast. (Didn't you like how I combined "crap" and "pizza" into one word? It sounds very Italian-y)  And while our heat wave will not last 14 days, it will go on for about 4 or 5 (but there's no cool, medieval term for 4-5 days, as far as I know).

Low pressure is moving off the coast even as we speak and is taking most of the leftover rain with it.  Dry day today, but should remain overcast until at least late afternoon, looking at the satellite pic.  There may be a few breaks here and there but overall not a good day for tanning.  Clouds dominate the skies for tonight as well, and there's a slight chance of an isolated shower, but I think most of the precip will stay north and west of NYC.

Tomorrow the winds turn to the south and that starts up the heat engine.  That southerly flow will pump warm, humid air into our region (n0 M-word, Katie).  High pressure looks to be in control until at least Monday maybe Tuesday with this flow pattern, meaning that temps will be hot and muggy and New Yorkers will be even more pleasant than usual.

Today: Cloudy with a few rays of sunshine in the afternoon.  High 73.  Winds E @ 7-8mph.

Tonight: Overcast skies with a very slight possibility of showers towards morning.  Evening lows in the upper 60s down to 61 by morning.  Light SE winds.

Tomorrow: Clouds with some afternoon sun.  High 76. Winds S @ 7-10mph.

Weekend Outlook: HOT HOT HOT! Temperatures in the low 90s thru Monday.  Slight chances for isolated afternoon t-storms Sunday and Monday.

Truant! Truant!

In typical Sam-fashion, my forecast is coming in an hour late.  Sue me.

The warm front that was meandering it's way through the mid-Atlantic states has now become a stationary front.  Because of this and upper-level dynamics (or lack thereof) the chance for rain has gone down a bit.  As you can clearly see by looking outside there is a lot of moisture in the air, but there isn't enough power in the atmosphere to get it up high enough where it can generate storms.  However, that doesn't mean there won't be any hot, storm-action.  

Currently, there are storms popping up in WVa and SW PA.  These storms should follow the front which looks to move east through MD and southern NJ.  We may certainly see some of its effects, but the bulk will go off to the south of us.  As of now, it looks like the most likely chance for rain won't be until after 10pm and will probably end by morning.

Tomorrow the rain should clear out but we'll still have some lingering clouds, especially in the morning.  There is a slight chance of a random afternoon shower or t-storm.  The instability and humidity may still be high enough tomorrow afternoon to generate a few isolated storms.  It's not uber-likely, but it is something to be aware of.  After that, high pressure will reclaim the northeast and we should be in store for a hot, dry couple of days.  Most likely throughout the weekend.  Wow, a weekend forecast on a Wednesday.  That should make up for my lateness.

Today:  Cloudy and hazy with an afternoon shower.  High 70.  Winds E @ 8-10mph.

Tonight:  Probable evening shower with showers and t-storms overnight.  Evening lows in the upper 60s down to 64 by morning.  Winds NE @ 7-10mph.

Tomorrow:  Clouds through early afternoon then clearing.  Isolated afternoon showers.  High 75.  Winds E @ 6-8mph.

Weather On the 9:34s

I'm going to be making a more detailed forecast in an hour or so, but for those who check the weather early I wanted to give you a brief rundown for today.

Right now we have two areas of low pressure.  A weak one which is currently over LI and a slightly stronger one that is over Chicago.  The LI low, which brought us the early morning rain is moving offshore and the Chicago low will track east this afternoon.  It looks to be moving along a warm front that will bring us another, if not several, rounds of showers and maybe a t-storm this afternoon.  The rain has stopped for now but will resume later today.  Check back round 11:3o for a more accurate, up to date forecast.  

A Quickie

Once again the folks in Texas are screwing me up.  But I can certainly give you an accurate breakdown without them.

Another clear day today for the most part.  The high pressure blob that has been sitting on us for the last few days is moving off the coast today.  That means that the winds will switch around to the south/southwest and funnel in some warm, moist, southern air.  Later this afternoon a cold front drops down out of Quebec and stops about midway across upstate NY.  The combination of southerly flow, an oncoming (but not passing) cold front and a sunny day will drive temperatures up into the mid 80s, with higher humidities as well.  There is a bit of a chance for a random afternoon shower but it will most likely be found north of us.  Expect one more clear, warm day.

Tonight an advancing low pressure from the Great Lakes will bring in some showers and t-storms for early Wednesday morning.  Showers and t-storms are likely throughout Wednesday, but probably nothing severe as not all the elements are in place for a severe outbreak; but some nice stormies none the less.  Low pressure moves out Wednesday night followed by slightly cooler, drier air.  Notice I say "slightly".  No major changes.  That clearing should remain throughout the weekend as temperatures climb back into the mid/upper 80s for the weekend.

Today:  Sunny.  High 87.  Southwest winds @ 6-13mph.

Tonight:  Clouds move in.  Rain likely by morning.  Evening lows in the upper 70s; and only down to 64 by morning.  South winds @ 8-10mph.

Tomorrow:  Periods of rain and thunderstorms.  High 74. South winds @12-15mph.

Messin' with Texas... A&M

Unfortunately, for the last 12+ hrs the Texas A&M weather interface page has been down.  Which means my temperatures today may be well off.  Although, they were off by 5 degrees yesterday so I guess I can't do much worse, right?

Currently, we are in the last stages of a trough making its way off-shore.  High pressure builds in today from Ohio and PA.  This will give us another warm, pleasant day across the region.  With the high pressure moving in and little cloud-cover, we can expect temperatures to be about the same as yesterday, however there is a bit of sinking air (in the vertical direction) to our north, which may keep highs a degree or two less than yesterday, but it will be marginal.  The coasts will remain a bit cooler, if you happen to be playing Bueller and taking the day off.  And if you are, you suck.

Tonight we'll have clear skies again, and we'll have a bit of cooling with no clouds and little humidity.  Lows should be around 60.  Tomorrow, high pressure remains in control and the winds turn SW, which will pump even warmer temperatures and some higher humidities into NYC.  Early Wednesday morning a cold front passes through the area giving us a chance for some rain on Wednesday.

Today:  Sunny and clear.  High 82.  Winds NW @ 8-10mph.

Tonight:  Clear.  Evening temps in the mid 70s down to 61 by morning.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and warm.  High 86. Winds SW @ 9-12 mph.

Outlook: A likely dose of showers and t-storms for Wednesday; Thursday clears up which should hold through the weekend.  Long enough for Big Brown to win the Triple Crown.  Hey, that rhymes.