Temps, temps, temps

Ok, ok so I slept in a little bit today.  I'm sure most of you sleep in until 9 on Saturdays, right?  I know Maggie sure does.  

So once again my temperature forecast was off by at least 3 degrees yesterday.  I feel like if I don't get my stuff together I should have some unusual weather punishment placed on me.  Feel free to submit your ideas!

Today looks to be about the same as yesterday.  A little bit warmer today as the winds will be funneling up warmer air from the south.  Clear skies for most of the day today, a few afternoon clouds could meander on in but it's nothing to worry about.  The dewpoints go up a little bit this afternoon, but still very dry by NYC standards.  Those three factors lead me to believe that temperatures will be up at least 5 degrees warmer today than yesterday.  I'm going with highs in the upper 70s with evening temps in the upper 60s and down to 59 by morning.

The clouds we start seeing this evening will be part of a front that may bring a stray shower on Thursday, but the most likely chance of rain will be Friday as a Canadian low drops down on us and could supply us with a dose of H20.  Enjoy today while it lasts!

Today: Sunny with high of 78. S winds 5-10mph

Tonight: Clouds roll in. Evening temperatures around 69 with morning low of 59.  S winds @5mph.

Sam's Weekend Is Here!

I've noticed that my recent forecasts, while almost spot on in predicting precipitation, have been less than stellar at predicting accurate temperatures.  And seeing that today's precip forecast is about as easy as (insert dirty joke here), I've decided to concentrate this forecast on getting my temperatures right.

While the low that plagued us yesterday has moved off the coast, its remnants will still effect us for the early part of today.  Luckily, this won't be in the form of precipitation, rather in the form of some morning clouds and strong northerly winds that are hanging out on the low's backside.  As the low pushes further off the coast, these clouds should go away and the winds should die down a bit.  This will leave us with clear skies and a light north breeze.  "Abundant sunshine" as the friendly computerized voice on the Weather Channel would say.

High pressure and dry air will take over for the next two days, which happen to also be my days off.  While this means clear skies and warmer temperatures during the day, it also means cool overnight lows.  Dry air, as you probably know, doesn't retain heat very well and once the sun goes down so will the temperatures.  But daytime highs will be back to average today and above average for tomorrow.  Expect highs in the upper 60s today and into the 70s for tomorrow.

This pattern should persist for the next two days.  Our next shot of rain won't be until Thursday, when another low moves through the northeast.  It looks to be tracking north of us right now and the likelihood for precip doesn't look too troubling at the moment.  I will, of course, keep you up to date as the situation progresses.

Today: Sunny and warmer, high 68.  N/NE winds 14-17mph this morning, dying down to 7mph this afternoon.

Tonight: Clear and cool. evening temps in the low/mid 60s down to 54 by morning.  North winds at 4mph.

Tomorrow: Sunny and warm again, high 74.  Winds switch to the S at 6mph.

Fully Rested... Kind of

Now that I've had a decent amount of sleep I can say with a bit more confidence what I theorized earlier.  The Weather Channel and the NWS both anticipate a big storm, which this is, but you can expect the heart of it to pass south.  

The biggest problem with this forecast is determining how long the low takes to move east.  If it goes quickly it won't be too bad; if not, there will be a bit more rain in store for us.  Right now the low is getting "fuel" by sucking in moisture from the ocean.  The longer the low stays over land the more onshore flow we get and the more time our low will have to turn that moist ocean air into rain droplets. (Winds rotate counterclockwise about a low, which happens to be over the D.C. area right now.  If you get out a map and trace a spirally circle outwards from DC you see that after you hit NY you have to pass over a lot of Atlantic Ocean; trace that line back to DC and you have your wind flow.)  If the low moves out over the ocean more quickly, which it seems to be doing, that flow around the low now has to go over land before it reaches NY.  As you can probably guess, air over land is not nearly as moist as the air over water; thus not as much fuel for our SUV of a low.  Once the fuel pump is cut off we should see an end to the rain, my guess is by mid afternoon.

The rain we will get will be overnight and tomorrow morning.  Don't be too surprised if this rain happens to come at us from the SE as it wraps around the low.  When the low does move offshore, the wind will remain our biggest nuisance.  This is a very deep low and since a high pressure area just exited our region, the pressure gradient is going to be very strong.  Big pressure gradient = big winds.  In fact, I just noticed that the NWS has issued a Wind Advisory.  Good day for wind surfing, if you have any idea whatsoever how to windsurf.

Temperatures won't go up much throughout the day.  The winds will be switching to the NE and look for these cold NE winds to keep temperatures low all day. Highs will struggle to get to 50. Ahh, springtime in New York. 

Sorry this forecast was a bit crazy and long-winded.  I hope I didn't go off on too many tangents.

Tomorrow (Monday): Rain showers until the mid-afternoon, then cloudy.  High 47.  Winds SE switching to NE at 20-25mph, gusts could be up to 40mph.

Tomorrow (Monday) night: Cloudy skies turning clear later on and remaining windy.  Evening lows in the mid/upper 40s dropping to 45 by morning.  N winds at 20mph.

Apology

First off, I want to apologize to my readers for not giving you a Saturday forecast.  Friday night was game night which means I was up until 2am playing poker and Wii.

You may ask why I'm up at 4am on a Sunday doing the weather.  It could be my raging case of insomnia, it could be that every time I fall asleep my cat lays down on my feet, or it could be the enchiladas and half pitcher of sangria I had for dinner (thanks John).  But, more than anything, it's remorse.  And I figured as long as I was up anyway, I should take a look at what mother nature has to offer us.

We're currently smack dab in between two big low pressure systems, which is good because it means high pressure for us and uneventful, easily forecasted weather for me.  The first low was our Friday rain maker and the second low looks to be headed our way for Monday.  However, tomorrow should be pleasant with clear skies and highs in the mid/upper 60s.  Some clouds roll in for the afternoon and evening as this new low approaches.  Look for evening temps to fall into the upper 50s and down to 49 by Monday morning. 

The Monday low will be the next weather headline but specifics are sketchy right now.  In my opinion, it looks like the winds will wreak more havoc than the rain for our area.  The bulk of the system may pass to our south but it's too early to tell.  Expect further details tonight as the system nears and I have a sufficient amount of sleep.

Today:  Sunny with some afternoon clouds, high 66. Winds NE switching to SE at about 10mph.

Tonight:  Cloudy skies with temps 56-58 in the evening; low of 49 by morning with showers. SE winds near 20-25mph.

Updated update

The more I look at this system, the more I seem to doubt it.  Like that guy at the gym who seems all bad and stuff (you know him), but is really pretty lame... that's what this looks like.  

Don't get me wrong, it's not going to be a beautiful day, but it's not as bleak as some people are forecasting it.  Looks like the main chunk of the low will be passing to our south, as I think I noted earlier (if I didn't say it I totally thought it).  However, I also think it's going to move out a lot slower than previously anticipated.  So while we won't be hit head on, it will linger for some time, probably through early Saturday morning.  

Temperatures remaining steady throughout the day, even dropping some as the back side of the front passes over us.  Damp and rainy with highs in the mid 50s today and sinking to the low 50s by nightfall.  Try not to have too much fun with this forecast.

Recap:

Today:  Rainy, some heavy rain mid-morn/early afternoon with high of 55. E winds at 15mph.

Tonight: Rainy again, most of the heavy rain will be in the early evening, lows dropping to about 50 in the evening and going down to 47 by morning.

Update

Once this round of morning showers die out we should stay dry for the rest of the day.  After midnight tonight the likelihood for more rain goes way up.  Today might be a bit sticky with dewpoints in the upper 50s and temperatures in the mid 70s.  Evening looks like it will be a little drier with temps in the low 60s.

Recap:  

Today: morning rain ending by 10am with a high around 76

Tonight: dry and cooler, evening temperature 62 down to 52 by morning.

Return of the Meti

That's pronounced met-eye.  I was trying to get as close to Jedi as I could but that's about the best I could do. 

As my title states I am making my triumphant return after my long (by Sun I meant Wed) hiatus.  I came down with a bad Midwestern cold and was unable to do anything but drink tea and watch Futurama dvds for two and half days.  But in my defense, the NY weather scene has been pretty boring lately.  Remember, "boring" to a meteorologist means nice, pleasant weather where there is no chance of damage to property or human beings.  However, that may change over the next few days.

We currently have two low-pressure systems lying off to our west.  The first, over eastern Lake Superior, will head east tonight and will drag with it a cold front that could bring some rain towards morning.  This front is also linked to the second low, currently over Missouri, which will slide in Friday and has the potential to produce quite a bit of rain.

While neither of these systems will be hitting us head-on, we can certainly expect some of their unfortunate side effects.  I feel tonight's system, if we get anything, will be light and during the early morning hours (say 5-6am).  I expect it to slide to our north but don't rule out a passing shower.  Temperatures shouldn't drop too much from the front and will be around 62 by morning.  

After morning we dry out but the second system lurks on the horizon.  The next round of storms will probably not start up until the late evening hours, but don't rule out a random afternoon shower or t-storm.  Storms become even more likely towards Friday morning and throughout the entire day Friday and even possibly into early Saturday.  Temperatures in the low 70s (72) Thursday but dropping to the mid 60s (66) on Friday.

The bulk of the rain will hopefully pass to our south but expect some rain.  The weather service is calling for up to 2 in of rain in some places through Saturday.  I will do my best to keep you informed more tonight and tomorrow as the situation progresses.  Please drop me a line if you have any questions of specifics about the forecast.  This one was a bit of a doozy, so I appreciate you reading it and apologize if it was too long.