Sciencey Goodness

Lately a lot of people have been asking me, "Sam, what's the deal with all these storms?" or "Why has it been raining so much?"  The scientific answer to those questions are that Vulcan and Zeus are out to get us and enjoy raining down thunderbolts upon our happy little centaur party with Bacchus.  Oh wait, that's from Fantasia.  The real answer is that with all this moisture and heat that's been with us lately, it takes very little effort on the atmosphere's part to generate storms.  It's also why the storms have been so erratic.  With no obvious forcing mechanisms, i.e. a front or a low pressure system, storms tend to spring up pretty randomly.  (there are countless reasons for this, but I won't bore you with them here)  Unfortunately, these conditions will persist for the next few days.

Today not much is going on.  A weak, slow moving cold front will approach us from the west this evening and may kick off a few showers and t-storms but nothing substantial.  The front slowly moves east Tuesday and we get another lovely high pressure system building off the Carolina coast.  You all know what this means, more heat and humidity for NYC.  That high will remain in effect until late Thursday when we see another cold front move in from the NW.  Once this second front moves through, conditions look to stabilize a bit and we may see some "normal" weather for a few days, if such a thing exists in the summer during the 21st century.

Back to today:  a trough associated with the aforementioned cold front sits off to our west.  Like I said it's slowly inching it's way east and will probably not effect us until later today, more into the evening hrs.  We still have a lot of moisture in the air and any storms that pop up could be both slow moving and contain heavy rain; a little different than the storms we've seen over the past few days.  Storms may continue into late tonight and early tomorrow morning.  Once the storms dissipate we should have a pleasant day tomorrow.  Lower humidities and sunshine... on a Tuesday... what a waste.

Today:  Cloudy with slight, slight chance of afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 86.  Winds SW @ 9-12 mph.

Tonight:  Scattered showers and t-storms.  Evening lows in the upper 70s, down to 68 by morning.  Winds W @ 6 mph.

Tomorrow:  Scattered clouds but otherwise sunny.  High 84.  Winds S @ 8-10 mph.

Tomorrow night:  Clear with a few clouds.  Low 68.  

Wednesday:  Sunny.  High 87.  

Sunday Edition

Everyone rejoice!  I'm coming to you with a special Sunday posting.  I don't know how many people will actually read it, because my track record for updating the blog on weekends is not exactly stellar.  But we may have some interesting weather happening today so maybe someone will be curious and check to see what's going on.

What's going on is heat and humidity are still dominating the scene.  A large upper-level low is moving out of the Great Lakes region and will be the culprit for unsettled weather over the next few days.  Today looks to be an especially good chance for heavy rain. There is clearly a great deal of moisture in the air and we have a relatively unstable atmosphere.  The heaviest rains may be to our north, in the Catskills, but it's very likely we could see downpours all the way south through the city and into southern NJ.  Severe storms may be likely but it looks like the biggest concern will be torrential rain within any individual storm cells.  Any developing storms will probably move through quickly, so it will not be a all-day rain event.

Tomorrow looks to be a similar scenario, although with a lower chance of heavy rain, however, tomorrow night a cold front will move through the area and that will hopefully give us a bit of a reprieve from the heat and humidity.

Today:  Showers and t-storms throughout the day, most likely in the afternoon.  High 85.  Winds S @ 9-13 mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms.  Low 73.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tomorrow:  Cloudy with some sun.  Afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 84.

Last Soccer Entry... Maybe

Anyone who watched the soccer game yesterday saw two things: the lovable Russians were sent home (who would've ever thought Russians could be lovable?) and the producers at ESPN finally got their act together and showed me some stylish, Euro-weather.  I'll bet it has an accent.

Back here, across the pond, we could be in for some stylish weather of our own.  Unfortunately, the main point concerning our forecast is the heat.  As Elaine from Seinfeld would say, "and the heat, my God the heat!"  High pressure will continue to push warm, tropical air into our region for the next several days, making this weekend a bit uncomfortable.  And as if that wasn't bad enough news, the sky looks to remain quite unsettled as well.

A series of small disturbances will wreak havoc on our area through Sunday.  By Monday a large, upper-level system will move out of the Great Lakes and should give us a reprieve from the hot, stickiness.  Until then, get yourself a fan and a cool beverage and suck it up.

Today:  Hot and humid.  Likely afternoon t-storms, some may be severe.  Downpours, strong winds, wrath of God, etc.  High 88.  Winds SW @ 7-10 mph.

Tonight:  Showers/t-storms likely through the evening hrs.  Clearing late.  Evening lows in the mid 80s and only going down to 76 by morning.  Winds W @ 4-6 mph.

Saturday:  Hot and humid with afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 89.  Winds S @ 9-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Evening showers and t-storms.  Low 74.

Sunday:  Showers and t-storms.  Slightly cooler.  High 85.

ESPN Drops the Ball

For anyone who watched the soccer game yesterday, you know that the ESPN crew claimed lightning knocked out the international feed.  And what horrible timing.  Why couldn't it have happened during one of those boring Italy games?  But the saddest part of this story was the fact that when they came back on the air, all I could think was, "Why don't they show some footage of this storm!"  I am such a dork.

Luckily, I may get to see some real-life storms today.  Currently, there is a cluster of showers moving ENE out of the Ohio Valley.  Although right now they're almost only showers, there is a chance of t-storms popping up later today.  This rain should be making its way into our area over the next few hrs or so, some might already be occurring in parts of the Bronx.  This round will probably last into the early afternoon and then we'll see a bit of a break.  After this break is where things get dicey.  We have a few elements in place for some late afternoon/early evening storms but are lacking in a major trigger to really get things going.  It's still possible for us to see some medium/strong storms this evening.

Any storminess should die down this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the SW.  This should bring in some warmer air from the south and make things a bit sticky for the next few days.  Lows tonight will only drop down to the mid 70s and tomorrow we heat up into the low 90s with possible heat indices in the mid-90s.  As Rachel Ray would say, "Yum-O!"

Today:  Morning rain showers with clearing in the afternoon.  Evening t-storms likely.  High 84.  Winds SW @ 8-12 mph.

Tonight:  Storms early on, then clearing.  Warm and humid.  Evening lows in the low 80s down to 74 by morning.  Winds NW @ 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Hot and humid.  Late-day showers/t-storms possible.  High 92.

Saturday:  Warm with possible afternoon storms.  High 89.

Sunday: Showers and t-storms.  High 85.

I Have Issues

Meteorologists are often faced with situations that are a bit enigmatic (warm air rises, but rising air cools and then sinks; but sinking air heats up and rises and so . . . I quit).  Likewise, the types of weather situations most meteorologists enjoy are counterintuitive, like the fact that I get excited about weather that could potentially kill me yet am bored to death by weather that is easy to forecast and pleasant to enjoy.  And the later, my friends, is what we have in store this afternoon.

Today's forecast is as easy as (insert dirty joke here).  No major fronts or anything interesting to speak of.  The jet stream is almost completely level, running straight from coast to coast over southern Canada.  This will allow warm air to build up across almost the entire US, with the exception of the Pacific NW through Saturday.

We are in for an absolutely beautiful day here in NY.  Low to mid 80s with relatively low humidities and clear skies should make today a great day for just about anything (except maybe storm chasing).  A high pressure system over Savannah, GA will build in later on today and tonight and that will push warm air into the NE tomorrow and Friday.  

Tomorrow, a shortwave system approaches from the west and gives us a good chance for showers/t-storms, some of which could be severe, but with the jet stream so far to our north they will probably be smaller isolated storms.  Unstable, humid air will be the story for Thursday and Friday.  Friday, we get another shortwave passing through and it will look like a carbon-copy of tomorrow.  Please shoot me any questions, comments, concerns, praise, criticism, etc.  This pleasant weather is boring me, I may have to leave my computer and go outside.

Today:  Clear and pleasant.  High 85.  Winds W @ 7-12 mph.

Tonight:  Clear.  Evening lows in the upper 70s down to 70 by morning. Winds SW 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and warm, likely afternoon showers and t-storms.  High 86.  Winds W @ 10-13 mph.

Friday: Scattered clouds with afternoon showers and t-storms likely.  High 88.

S-M-R-T

Mother Nature has certainly been doing everything she can to try and stump me these last few days.  There's just one thing I want to say to her:  Good job!  It's about time somebody threw me off for once.  I'm normally so perfect with my forecasts that it's refreshing to know that the environment can still throw me a curve ball when it wants to.  However, I'm afraid today I return to my normal dominance.

The cold front I was discussing yesterday is moving through even as we speak, although you probably won't notice it.  The CF is also bringing some cooler, drier air down with it, which should result in a rather pleasant day or two for us.  There is a slight chance of some afternoon showers but I'm assuming they will be small, short-lived, random ones at best.  Tonight, high pressure builds in from the SW which should keep things generally dry and clear through Wednesday.  Thursday that high pushes warm air into the region and we start to feel those lovely hot/humid conditions that make NYC's summers are so famous.  Highs Thursday could reach 90.  Yum.

Today:  Sunny with a few clouds and a slight chance of an afternoon shower/t-storm.  High 81.  Winds NW @ 12-15 mph.

Tonight:  Clearing.  Evening temps in the mid 70s with a low of 64.  Winds NW @ 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny with a few clouds.  High 85.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Thursday:  Warm and humid.  High 89.  

Soccer Analogies (they're all I know)

Alright, so I guess karma came back to bite me yesterday for my comments on Friday regarding weekend forecasting.  We clearly had showers and t-storms instead of plain old rain.  My bad.  But there were several good things that can be taken from the weekend:  Saturday was beautiful and we had some cool storms yesterday.  Plus, Italy lost in the Euros (sorry Geoff).  I'm sorry but they are to soccer what fog is to weather; boring, ugly, and pretty greasy.

Today, we have the Portugal of weather; a sexy, exhilarating start and then most likely fading out towards the end of the day.  As you can clearly see, and probably feel, we have a lot of moisture in the air.  That will act as the fuel we need to kick off some storms later this morning and then again this afternoon.  A trough moving in from the NW will provide that extra kick (yet another soccer reference) to spawn more storms this afternoon. 

With the good supply of moisture, the daytime heating, and the trough placement, storms could be severe this afternoon.  However, like yesterday, they will probably also be spotty.  Midtown could be sunny while the Bronx and Westchester could have hail, downpours and lightning.  The storms may be a bit more frequent today than yesterday but it looks like a fairly similar event.

Tonight the storms die down in the mid-evening hours and we see some clearing after midnight.  Tomorrow's weather may look similar to today's.  A cold front moves in from the west and we get another opportunity for late afternoon showers and t-storms.  Luckily, after the front passes tomorrow, we should clear up on Wednesday and dry out for a few days.

Today:  Some fog early will burn off by mid/late morning.  Expect an early round of showers/t-storms (noon-1pm) then another round later on in the afternoon/early evening hrs.  Heavy rains and strong storms can be expected.  High 80.  Winds S @ 6-10mph.

Tonight:  Showers/t-storms likely early on, then clearing overnight.  Evening temps in the upper 70s with a low of 69.  Winds W @ 5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Clouds with afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 82.  Winds NW@ 9-13 mph.

Wednesday:  Clear with a few scattered clouds.  High 86.