Eureka!

So I've finally discovered the real culprit for all this unsettled weather.  It's fleet week!  I don't know about you guys, but seeing hundreds and thousands of dudes dressed up in little Popeye outfits makes me very uneasy and unsettled.  So I'm sure they must be having a similar effect on Mother Nature.  In all seriousness though, I'm sure their collective body heat is creating some sort of localized low pressure vortex.  

That upper-level low pressure system over Canada is still hanging around and today we have another shortwave passing through.  Try to think of these shortwaves as spokes on a wagon wheel that continue to rotate about the center.  On the bright side, literally, today should be a bit clearer than yesterday, which will help bring temperatures up a bit.  With the shortwave passing through, however, we can expect to see a late afternoon/early evening shower or even t-storm as the atmosphere is just a little unstable.  My guess is anything that will pop up will do so between 4-8pm.  Even though it looks nice now, bring your umbrella, just in case.

Tomorrow looks to be similar to yesterday with more clouds and cooler temperatures.  But once we're through with Thursday things start to look up.  That low over Canada finally moves out over the North Atlantic on Friday and by Saturday afternoon high pressure will be in control and it looks to be warm and dry through Monday.  

Today: Sunny with some passing clouds. Chance of a late-afternoon shower or t-storm.  High: 67. Winds W-SW at 8-13mph.

Tonight: Slight chance of evening shower with temps in the mid 60s. Otherwise cloudy with a low of 53 by morning.

Tomorrow:  Overcast, chance of afternoon showers.  High 61.

Who'll Stop the Rain?

I think I know now why most people dislike meteorologists.  We are the proverbial bearers of bad news.  And today is no different.

Another shortwave of low pressure will be impacting us today.  This one is a bit more substantial than the others we've encountered over the last 4 days.  It looks now like most of it will pass south of us, but it's still likely we'll see showers today.  Looking at the satellite pics, I assume the rain will start here sometime after 11:00am and continue until about 6-8pm tonight.  I apologize to my roller hockey friends, but the conditions don't look great.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side.  With the rain and the clouds today we will probably not even reach 60.  Same for tonight as lows will be in the low 50s from the evening until the morning.  I'd also like to add that the forecaster at the NWS was complaining this morning that the computer models led him to predict temperatures that were much too warm yesterday.  I was off by 2 degrees while they were off by 7.  Amateurs.

This pattern, unfortunately, is going to persist for the next couple of days.  But, don't fear.  It looks like high pressure should be building in for the Memorial Day weekend, giving us dry weather and warmer temperatures.

Today: Rain, beginning in the morning and continuing into the evening hours.  High 57. Winds N @ 6-9mph.

Tonight: Rain ending by early evening, cloudy and cool.  Evening temps in the low 50s down to 49 by morning.

Cool Weather

So far, I've only gotten one response from my call for cool weather photos- it comes from my Dad (thanks Dad!) and it is a "cool" one!  It's a picture of our house in Wisconsin after a particularly heavy snowfall this winter.  Those of you who didn't get the chance to visit the midwest this winter would be amazed at the sheer volume of snow they got.  Great year for skiing.  Bad year for shoveling.

Incedently, if any of you find this photo appealing, my hometown of Stevens Point just got voted in the top 10 places to move to by Relocate America! Go Point!

I'm learnding!!

What a perfect weekend . . . forecast.  My forecast highs of 57 and 72 were perfect for Friday and Saturday according to the Central Park weather station.  Sunday's high was 4 off, but not bad for 3 days in advance.  Apparently there was no rain reported on Saturday.  Around 9:00 I was outside in midtown and definitely got rained on.  Can anyone else claim they got rained on or at least saw rain Saturday? Either way, I feel like a deserve a pat on the back.  Pat pat.  There.  I feel special now.

On to issues of the present:  I know today's forecast is coming in a little late.  The computer models get updated at 10:30 eastern so I was waiting to see what they'd tell me.  Unfortunately, they told me squat.  The same, unsettled pattern we saw over the weekend will remain and now let me attempt to tell you why.

Deep low pressure, centered over SE Quebec has decided to set up shop over the NE for a few days.  This low is "cutoff"up to 150mb; cutoff means that winds are completely encircling it.  This happens often near the surface, but rarely at 150mb, which is more or less the penthouse suite of the troposphere (where all the sexy weather happens).  When lows get this deep they tend to act as a roadblock for the rest of the atmosphere's flow, causing surface weather to become a bit stagnant.  In our case, a mix of showers and clear weather that's hard to predict.

The unsettled part is due to a series of "shortwaves" passing through the "longwave" - our big low.  The shortwaves are like little kinks in the longwave that develop when a big trough builds up and slows down like it's doing now.  The resulting shortwaves, in this case, don't have enough support or fuel to develop into any sort of major storm, but they can make scattered rain showers here and there.  

It's also important to note that it will be fairly windy over the next few days.  That deep low will create a strong pressure gradient, forcing surface winds in towards it.  They will hopefully die down a little tomorrow as the low slowly moves northeast, but will still be noticeable.  

With that said, and looking at my current radar screen, I'm going to tell you to expect a few afternoon showers today and an even better chance tomorrow.  The showers shouldn't be too intense; no downpours or thunder or anything fun like that, just enough to be a nuisance.  Highs cool both days with temperatures in the low 60s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Today: Scattered, light showers.  High 61.  W winds 15-20mph, with gusts +20.

Tonight: Clear.  Low 47. W winds 10-15mph.

Tomorrow: Showers.  High 60.

Give Me $$$

This will probably be my most extensive forecast to date.  You may want to grab a coffee before reading this.

Short Term:

Friday is looking bleak at this point.  I am afraid I may have been wrong this morning by forecasting this low to pass south.  Currently (11:40pm Thurs) the front is stalled from southern PA through LI and the low is sitting somewhere over NW Kentucky/SE Ohio/SW WV.  The low is going to follow that front line out to sea, which will take from now until late Fri Night/early Sat morning.  Should be some decent rain when you wake up tomorrow, while the heaviest appears to occur in the late morn/early afternoon hours.  Rain will most likely end by midnight here in the city.  Good night to take shelter at a house party (wink wink).  Temps cool with highs only reaching upper 50s/low 60s.

Weekend:

This main low should completely pass by Saturday morning (in time for cartoons) and most of Saturday should turn out dry.  There is a chance of a few random pop-up showers and t-storms later in the afternoon and the early evening, but I think the day looks promising.  The possibility of rogue storms continues through Sunday with lots of mini-disturbances and unstable air.  In my opinion, Saturday looks to be a nicer day than Sunday.  Highs both days will be around 70 with evening temps in the upper 60s and lows near 50 both days.  Apparently, my audience is mostly grad students, who stay indoors all week.  On the weekends, they need to know if they can play outside.  Otherwise, they may get Rickets.  You're welcome guys!!!

Pimlico:

As a special addition to this weekend's forecast, I've decided to add a city:  Laurel, Md.  Why you say?  The Preakness Stakes, idiot.  So for those of you who like horse racing, or have gambling problems, or both, here you go:

From what I've heard about horse racing, and perhaps a certain friend and his certain veterinarian fiance will correct me, it should be a fast track.  Tomorrow, Maryland will be getting the southern portion of the storm we're getting.  Then things should clear up and be dry for Saturday.  I heard this makes a fast track.  Temps in the low 70s.

Also, there looks to be a fairly stiff SW and/or WSW wind (15+mph).  The track is oriented on a SW to NE axis, meaning there should be a strong tailwind on back stretch and headwind down the home stretch. It could make a difference in what horse you pick.  Except me, I always lose at the track.  But, I do know weather, so someone else can take my advice and (pardon the pun) run with it.  I should totally be getting paid for all this... out of anyone's winnings, at least.

Friday (NYC): Rainy, mostly in the morning.  High 57. Winds NE @ 10mph.

Friday Night: Evening rain, ending around midnight.  Low 50. Winds N @ 9-13mph.

Saturday: Drying out in the morning, possible shower or t-storm late in the afternoon.  High 72.

Sunday: Scattered showers and t-storms. High 70.

Conformist

I've decided to break my usual rules of forecasting and use a phrase I hate using.  This is so far unprecedented and may never happen again, so listen close... today's forecast: 30% chance of rain.

Ewww!  That made me feel so dirty.  Normally I hate when meteorologists say X% chance of rain.  But occasionally it happens where even the best of us, i.e. me, just don't know.  The best chance looks to be this morning before noon.  The radar screen today looks like some sort of Kandinsky speckled artwork.  Little blurbs here and there all over the NE.  Take your umbrella out but there aren't going to be any downpours and it's not going to be any sort of steady rain, if it does at all.  We should even see some sun mixed in throughout the day.

This spottiness is due to a weak cold front moving south out of Canada.  The front doesn't have a ton of support in its upper dynamics or its H2O fuel.  It has enough to create a little precip, but nothing to get too excited about.  The front sort of wears itself out tonight and an attached, strengthening low pushes east for Friday.  This low could possibly make for some decent rain.  The computer models are still disagreeing a bit as to which track the low will take.  Right now most of it looks to move through south Jersey and out into LI, possibly missing us, but it's too early to tell.  The weather for the rest of the weekend looks just as unsure as today and tomorrow with lots of "mini-systems" passing throughout the weekend.  Only time will tell.  Stay tuned!

Today: Scattered, light showers.  Cloudy skies with a few peeks at the sun.  High 71. Winds N @ 6-9mph.

Tonight:  Cloudy.  Evening lows in the upper 60s, down to 53 by morning.

Tomorrow:  Afternoon showers and cooler.  High 57.

The Wife

So now that I've been given the great privilege of actually being a contributor on Sam's awesome blog, I feel like I should actually contribute in some way- that is, besides just putting a way cool hit counter on the bottom of the blog (anyone notice my great little piece of handy-work?), so basically, let me know if there's anything any of you loyal (or disloyal) blog readers would like to have added to make your weather viewing experiences more enjoyable.  Links, questions, pictures, an animated little Sam or Hadley (the cat) running across your screen?  Let me know and I'll see what I can do.

In addition, I'm giving out a call for any cool pictures of weather- I know it might seem kinda "local news" but it'd be cool to see where you guys have been lately and what kind of cool clouds, storms, sunsets, etc. that you've gotten to experience.  Just throw me an email if you have any.  

Cheers!