I'm learnding!!

What a perfect weekend . . . forecast.  My forecast highs of 57 and 72 were perfect for Friday and Saturday according to the Central Park weather station.  Sunday's high was 4 off, but not bad for 3 days in advance.  Apparently there was no rain reported on Saturday.  Around 9:00 I was outside in midtown and definitely got rained on.  Can anyone else claim they got rained on or at least saw rain Saturday? Either way, I feel like a deserve a pat on the back.  Pat pat.  There.  I feel special now.

On to issues of the present:  I know today's forecast is coming in a little late.  The computer models get updated at 10:30 eastern so I was waiting to see what they'd tell me.  Unfortunately, they told me squat.  The same, unsettled pattern we saw over the weekend will remain and now let me attempt to tell you why.

Deep low pressure, centered over SE Quebec has decided to set up shop over the NE for a few days.  This low is "cutoff"up to 150mb; cutoff means that winds are completely encircling it.  This happens often near the surface, but rarely at 150mb, which is more or less the penthouse suite of the troposphere (where all the sexy weather happens).  When lows get this deep they tend to act as a roadblock for the rest of the atmosphere's flow, causing surface weather to become a bit stagnant.  In our case, a mix of showers and clear weather that's hard to predict.

The unsettled part is due to a series of "shortwaves" passing through the "longwave" - our big low.  The shortwaves are like little kinks in the longwave that develop when a big trough builds up and slows down like it's doing now.  The resulting shortwaves, in this case, don't have enough support or fuel to develop into any sort of major storm, but they can make scattered rain showers here and there.  

It's also important to note that it will be fairly windy over the next few days.  That deep low will create a strong pressure gradient, forcing surface winds in towards it.  They will hopefully die down a little tomorrow as the low slowly moves northeast, but will still be noticeable.  

With that said, and looking at my current radar screen, I'm going to tell you to expect a few afternoon showers today and an even better chance tomorrow.  The showers shouldn't be too intense; no downpours or thunder or anything fun like that, just enough to be a nuisance.  Highs cool both days with temperatures in the low 60s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Today: Scattered, light showers.  High 61.  W winds 15-20mph, with gusts +20.

Tonight: Clear.  Low 47. W winds 10-15mph.

Tomorrow: Showers.  High 60.