Working For The Weekend

In our atmosphere, there are many mechanisms that can contribute to how our weather acts.  In these situations, as a meteorologist, sometimes we have to B.S.  Oops, I mean sometimes we have to convey to our viewers/listeners/readers that the atmosphere is a complicated place that is very dynamical and very hard to predict.  This is one of those times.  Let's start with the good news first.

Today is going to be another great day in NYC.  Sunny skies and warm temperatures will again dominate today's plot.  By afternoon some moisture will be moving into our region but this will only result in some playful afternoon cumulus clouds and an increase in humidity.  In general, a good day.

Late tonight things change as a warm front passes up through NJ and into upstate NY.  This could provide us with some showers for Saturday morning cartoon watching.  As we go further into Saturday the situation doesn't get much better.  Late Saturday evening a corresponding cold front will slide east through western PA and NY and could provide us with another round of rainy goodness.  The real problem with Saturday's forecast, however, revolves around what falls in between these two frontal passages.

There will be a lot of moist, unstable air above us Saturday afternoon.  We may see several rounds of showers and t-storms throughout the day.  Some of these may even be severe with the possibility of hail and strong winds within certain storms.  You may want to take a look at the radar before venturing out.

Saturday night we see showers likely early on with the passing cold front. Later Saturday evening the skies clear and that extends into Sunday, giving us a nice start to next week.  If you want to hang out outside, I suggest Sunday.  Unless you're like me and have a sick fascination with destructive, possibly lethal forces of nature.

Today:  Sunny with afternoon clouds.  High 80.  Winds S @ 8-11mph.

Tonight:  Overcast skies with a chance of showers towards morning.  Evening lows in the mid 70s and only going down to 65 by morning.  Winds S @ 10mph.

Tomorrow:  Cloudy with showers early.  Showers and t-storms resume later on in the day with a possibility for strong storms.  High 76.  Winds SW @ 12-18mph.

Sunday: Clear and sunny.  High 77.

Happy Birthday, Mom!!!

Some of you know her, some of you don't, (she is like the Katherine Jackson of meteorologists) but it is my mom's birthday today.  Feel free to post her a happy birthday if you wish.

As your meteorological bartender, I get to say that we have another day of beautiful weather on tap.  Clear, sunny skies will dominate today's picture as a ridge of high pressure is well in control.  Still a little breezy with winds out of the west around 10-14mph.  But the temperatures should be even warmer today than yesterday.  My predicted high of 67 was off by 1 yesterday (d'oh), but I was closer than my comrades.  Today highs should be in the low-mid 70s, right around average for May 29th, my mom's birthday.

Unfortunately, for my mom, Duluth will not be so nice.  They will see a very likely chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that will extend into early tomorrow morning and highs in the low 60s (63 is my guess).  But that will just give her more of an excuse to stay inside and party.

Today: Sunny and clear.  High 74.  W winds @ 8-14mph.

Tonight: Clear.  Evening lows in the upper 60s down to 59 by morning. NW winds @ 5mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny w/ clouds in the afternoon.  High 79.

Another Day, Another Super-Accurate Forecast

Our old pal, High Pressure, returns to the area today bringing back the sun and some more seasonable temperatures.  The average high for this time of year, if anyone is wondering, is about 72, and I'm afraid we won't get anywhere near that today.  The backside of yesterday's cold front, which we are in, has some cooler air and a decent north/northwesterly breeze.  This will keep temperatures and humidities down.  Dewpoints today will only be in the 3os, so it will be quite dry.  This will also help to drop temperatures tonight.  If you're out take a sweater or jacket; once the sun goes down it may get chilly.  Evening temps around 60 with morning lows in the low 50s.

Tomorrow, Mother Nature turns down her A/C and temperatures go back into the mid 70s; with more of the same for Friday.  We won't see our next solid chance of rain until Friday night and Saturday when a low pressure system moves in from the Great Lakes.  Until then, expect clear skies and warm temps each day.

Today: Sunny with a few clouds.  High 67.  Winds N/NW @ 8-12mph

Tonight:  Clear, evening lows around 60, down to 51 by morning. Winds NW @ 4-8mph

Tomorrow:  Clear and sunny.  High 74.

"Lightning is one of natures number one killers"

So I thought I'd check out the warnings on the potentially cool weather about to ravage the area- unfortunately for those who love a good storm, it looks to my untrained eye that the worst will indeed pass just north of us- though we should get some good stuff in the next hour or so, but the National Weather Service does feel the need to give us this warning:

PEOPLE IN THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.  LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN. 

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.  REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

You always have to be so dramatic Weather Service!  Anyway, in case any of you would like to read the full special weather statement for NYC, it's right here.  Best suspend any plans of playing with any long metal rods in open fields until it's past.

Storm Trooper

It appears as though I was a little off on my rain prediction, seeing as we already have some light rain falling.  Hopefully I can get the rest of the day right.

A cold front will slide down from the northwest today and give us a good chance for some showers and t-storms.  As in most meteorological cases, timing is everything.  Currently, the front is running through northern OH and PA and extends through north-central NY and curves up through the Adirondacks and up through northern Vermont.  It is scheduled to pass through SE NY early this evening, but I think may arrive earlier.  If it does arrive earlier the chances for t-storms and anything fun will be greatly diminished.

Currently we have some cloud cover and light showers over our area, but behind this we have an area of clear skies.  Behind the clearing is the actual front, where there is very little action now but come this afternoon could turn into some attractive storms.  The Storm Prediction Center in Normal, OK has put out a "Slight Chance Risk" of severe storms that includes NYC.  The danger we face will be strong winds and possibly small hail within any developing t-storms.  Only a small chance, but something to keep an eye on.  The clear skies ahead of the front and the time it passes will be the keys to developing any real strong storms.  If the front hits before, say 3pm, the chances of it being severe is much lower.  However, if the front doesn't pass until closer to, say 6pm, the chances of those storms being severe is much higher.  My instincts say it will pass earlier, but my heart wants some sexy weather.  I'm torn.

Today: Clouds early, then some sun, storms this afternoon (most likely from 4-7pm).  Humid.  High 83.  Winds SW switching to NW this afternoon @ 11-15mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms early evening, then clearing.  Low 55. Winds N @ 12-16mph.

Tomorrow: Sunny and cooler.  High 67.  

Bee-utiful

What a beautiful weekend and beautifully forecasted by yours truly.  I was off by a total of only 3 degrees all weekend!  That includes Saturday morning's low too, which was perfect.  Yesterday, my predicted high of 77 was also perfect and Saturday's high was apparently off by one (I had 70 and Central Park recorded a high of 71), but in the hourly readings the temperature never read 71, so it must have only been 71 for a brief time.  Either way I think I rocked the proverbial casba on this one.

Today looks to be another gorgeous day as we are still under that ridge of high pressure.  Tomorrow afternoon the cold front that produced tornadoes in Iowa and Minnesota makes it's way into our area.  Don't worry, nothing too crazy for us as the upper level dynamics necessary for producing severe weather should stay to our north.  However, we will most likely see some showers and thunderstorms by tomorrow afternoon and evening.  I will check it again tonight and let you know if anything changes.  Until then, enjoy the last day of this beautiful weekend.

Today: Sunny skies and breezy with a few high clouds in the afternoon.  High 81. Winds S @14-18mph.

Tonight: Clouds and breezy.  Evening lows in the mid 70s, with morning low near 65. Winds SW @ 9-15mph.

Tomorrow: Clouds with some sun early, then cloudy with showers and t-storms in the afternoon.  High 80.

Also: if you want to check how I do, I posted a link on the sidebar where you can verify the accuracy of my forecasts.  Enjoy!

Mmmm . . . weather

They say that Memorial Day is the unofficial start of summer.  More importantly, it's the official start of barbecue season, which is perhaps my favorite eating season of the year, narrowly beating out chili season.  And it is with great pride and pleasure to announce that this start to the barbecue season should be nearly ideal.

That pesky low pressure system is finally making its way out to sea and, according to the barometer in my living room, high pressure is beginning to build.  Hence the relatively clear skies.  The air behind this low is still a bit on the cool side, so even though it is moving out and skies are clearing, temperatures will still be a bit on the cool side, although they'll certainly be warmer than the past few days.  It will also remain a bit breezy today as we are in between two pressure systems, and the contrast between the two will create a decent northwesterly breeze.

The weather continues to get nicer as we go more into the weekend.  Tomorrow will be a near-clone of today and Sunday looks to be even better as skies remain clear and temperatures rise into the upper 70s.  Monday also looks warm but there may be a chance of rain or a t-storm.  For now, I'd say do your grilling on Sunday (which is what I plan to do) rather than Monday.  But if Monday turns out nice and you want to bbq that day as well, I'm not going to stop you.

Today:  Some clouds, otherwise sunny and warmer.  High 71. Winds NW @10-15mph.

Tonight: Clear. Evening temps in the low 60s.  Morning low of 53.

Tomorrow:  Clear and sunny.  High 70.

Sunday: Sunny and warm.  High 77.

Monday: Sunny with a chance of late afternoon rain/t-storms.  High 79.

A beautiful day in da Bronx Boo!

Continuing my series of cool weather photos, here's a photo of my recent trip to the New York Botanical Gardens:

As Sam's forecast predicted, Saturday was a beautiful day for wandering around the New York Botanical Gardens in the Bronx.  If you can make it through the less than stellar neighborhood to get there and deal with the questionable subway service (give yourself lots of extra time), it really is a beautiful place to visit on a sunny day.  The lilacs are in season and even some of the fragrant roses are already in bloom!  Plus, a fabulous exhibit starting this Saturday will feature sculpture of Henry Moore.  The great visit made up for the fact that my horse ("Behindatthebar" as you would recall from a previous comment) dropped out of the Preakness Stakes at the last minute.  I'll just have to save my betting for the June 7th Belmont Stakes... pictures of that to come.

One More Day

Alright, this forecast is going to be short but sweet, so listen up:

The Canadian low that's been plaguing us for the last week is finally going to move out, which means we have one more day of icky weather to endure ("icky" is an official meteorological term).  Yet another shortwave will be passing through this afternoon, bringing with it some scattered showers.  The best chance looks like it will be from the morning (as I believe it is raining now) until the early afternoon hours.  Skies will remain cloudy and there will be a strong northwesterly wind keeping temps on the cool side.

The low moves off the coast tomorrow and high pressure pushes in from the west.  This will give us sunshine and much warmer temperatures for the entirety of the Memorial Day weekend. I will give you a more precise weekend forecast tomorrow and let you know just how many bbqs you can attend.

Today: Cloudy with scattered showers until early afternoon.  High 61.  Winds NW @ 13-15mph

Tonight: Cloudy early then clearing towards morning.  Low 51.

Tomorrow: Sunny and warmer.  High 72.

Eureka!

So I've finally discovered the real culprit for all this unsettled weather.  It's fleet week!  I don't know about you guys, but seeing hundreds and thousands of dudes dressed up in little Popeye outfits makes me very uneasy and unsettled.  So I'm sure they must be having a similar effect on Mother Nature.  In all seriousness though, I'm sure their collective body heat is creating some sort of localized low pressure vortex.  

That upper-level low pressure system over Canada is still hanging around and today we have another shortwave passing through.  Try to think of these shortwaves as spokes on a wagon wheel that continue to rotate about the center.  On the bright side, literally, today should be a bit clearer than yesterday, which will help bring temperatures up a bit.  With the shortwave passing through, however, we can expect to see a late afternoon/early evening shower or even t-storm as the atmosphere is just a little unstable.  My guess is anything that will pop up will do so between 4-8pm.  Even though it looks nice now, bring your umbrella, just in case.

Tomorrow looks to be similar to yesterday with more clouds and cooler temperatures.  But once we're through with Thursday things start to look up.  That low over Canada finally moves out over the North Atlantic on Friday and by Saturday afternoon high pressure will be in control and it looks to be warm and dry through Monday.  

Today: Sunny with some passing clouds. Chance of a late-afternoon shower or t-storm.  High: 67. Winds W-SW at 8-13mph.

Tonight: Slight chance of evening shower with temps in the mid 60s. Otherwise cloudy with a low of 53 by morning.

Tomorrow:  Overcast, chance of afternoon showers.  High 61.

Who'll Stop the Rain?

I think I know now why most people dislike meteorologists.  We are the proverbial bearers of bad news.  And today is no different.

Another shortwave of low pressure will be impacting us today.  This one is a bit more substantial than the others we've encountered over the last 4 days.  It looks now like most of it will pass south of us, but it's still likely we'll see showers today.  Looking at the satellite pics, I assume the rain will start here sometime after 11:00am and continue until about 6-8pm tonight.  I apologize to my roller hockey friends, but the conditions don't look great.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side.  With the rain and the clouds today we will probably not even reach 60.  Same for tonight as lows will be in the low 50s from the evening until the morning.  I'd also like to add that the forecaster at the NWS was complaining this morning that the computer models led him to predict temperatures that were much too warm yesterday.  I was off by 2 degrees while they were off by 7.  Amateurs.

This pattern, unfortunately, is going to persist for the next couple of days.  But, don't fear.  It looks like high pressure should be building in for the Memorial Day weekend, giving us dry weather and warmer temperatures.

Today: Rain, beginning in the morning and continuing into the evening hours.  High 57. Winds N @ 6-9mph.

Tonight: Rain ending by early evening, cloudy and cool.  Evening temps in the low 50s down to 49 by morning.

Cool Weather

So far, I've only gotten one response from my call for cool weather photos- it comes from my Dad (thanks Dad!) and it is a "cool" one!  It's a picture of our house in Wisconsin after a particularly heavy snowfall this winter.  Those of you who didn't get the chance to visit the midwest this winter would be amazed at the sheer volume of snow they got.  Great year for skiing.  Bad year for shoveling.

Incedently, if any of you find this photo appealing, my hometown of Stevens Point just got voted in the top 10 places to move to by Relocate America! Go Point!

I'm learnding!!

What a perfect weekend . . . forecast.  My forecast highs of 57 and 72 were perfect for Friday and Saturday according to the Central Park weather station.  Sunday's high was 4 off, but not bad for 3 days in advance.  Apparently there was no rain reported on Saturday.  Around 9:00 I was outside in midtown and definitely got rained on.  Can anyone else claim they got rained on or at least saw rain Saturday? Either way, I feel like a deserve a pat on the back.  Pat pat.  There.  I feel special now.

On to issues of the present:  I know today's forecast is coming in a little late.  The computer models get updated at 10:30 eastern so I was waiting to see what they'd tell me.  Unfortunately, they told me squat.  The same, unsettled pattern we saw over the weekend will remain and now let me attempt to tell you why.

Deep low pressure, centered over SE Quebec has decided to set up shop over the NE for a few days.  This low is "cutoff"up to 150mb; cutoff means that winds are completely encircling it.  This happens often near the surface, but rarely at 150mb, which is more or less the penthouse suite of the troposphere (where all the sexy weather happens).  When lows get this deep they tend to act as a roadblock for the rest of the atmosphere's flow, causing surface weather to become a bit stagnant.  In our case, a mix of showers and clear weather that's hard to predict.

The unsettled part is due to a series of "shortwaves" passing through the "longwave" - our big low.  The shortwaves are like little kinks in the longwave that develop when a big trough builds up and slows down like it's doing now.  The resulting shortwaves, in this case, don't have enough support or fuel to develop into any sort of major storm, but they can make scattered rain showers here and there.  

It's also important to note that it will be fairly windy over the next few days.  That deep low will create a strong pressure gradient, forcing surface winds in towards it.  They will hopefully die down a little tomorrow as the low slowly moves northeast, but will still be noticeable.  

With that said, and looking at my current radar screen, I'm going to tell you to expect a few afternoon showers today and an even better chance tomorrow.  The showers shouldn't be too intense; no downpours or thunder or anything fun like that, just enough to be a nuisance.  Highs cool both days with temperatures in the low 60s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Today: Scattered, light showers.  High 61.  W winds 15-20mph, with gusts +20.

Tonight: Clear.  Low 47. W winds 10-15mph.

Tomorrow: Showers.  High 60.

Give Me $$$

This will probably be my most extensive forecast to date.  You may want to grab a coffee before reading this.

Short Term:

Friday is looking bleak at this point.  I am afraid I may have been wrong this morning by forecasting this low to pass south.  Currently (11:40pm Thurs) the front is stalled from southern PA through LI and the low is sitting somewhere over NW Kentucky/SE Ohio/SW WV.  The low is going to follow that front line out to sea, which will take from now until late Fri Night/early Sat morning.  Should be some decent rain when you wake up tomorrow, while the heaviest appears to occur in the late morn/early afternoon hours.  Rain will most likely end by midnight here in the city.  Good night to take shelter at a house party (wink wink).  Temps cool with highs only reaching upper 50s/low 60s.

Weekend:

This main low should completely pass by Saturday morning (in time for cartoons) and most of Saturday should turn out dry.  There is a chance of a few random pop-up showers and t-storms later in the afternoon and the early evening, but I think the day looks promising.  The possibility of rogue storms continues through Sunday with lots of mini-disturbances and unstable air.  In my opinion, Saturday looks to be a nicer day than Sunday.  Highs both days will be around 70 with evening temps in the upper 60s and lows near 50 both days.  Apparently, my audience is mostly grad students, who stay indoors all week.  On the weekends, they need to know if they can play outside.  Otherwise, they may get Rickets.  You're welcome guys!!!

Pimlico:

As a special addition to this weekend's forecast, I've decided to add a city:  Laurel, Md.  Why you say?  The Preakness Stakes, idiot.  So for those of you who like horse racing, or have gambling problems, or both, here you go:

From what I've heard about horse racing, and perhaps a certain friend and his certain veterinarian fiance will correct me, it should be a fast track.  Tomorrow, Maryland will be getting the southern portion of the storm we're getting.  Then things should clear up and be dry for Saturday.  I heard this makes a fast track.  Temps in the low 70s.

Also, there looks to be a fairly stiff SW and/or WSW wind (15+mph).  The track is oriented on a SW to NE axis, meaning there should be a strong tailwind on back stretch and headwind down the home stretch. It could make a difference in what horse you pick.  Except me, I always lose at the track.  But, I do know weather, so someone else can take my advice and (pardon the pun) run with it.  I should totally be getting paid for all this... out of anyone's winnings, at least.

Friday (NYC): Rainy, mostly in the morning.  High 57. Winds NE @ 10mph.

Friday Night: Evening rain, ending around midnight.  Low 50. Winds N @ 9-13mph.

Saturday: Drying out in the morning, possible shower or t-storm late in the afternoon.  High 72.

Sunday: Scattered showers and t-storms. High 70.

Conformist

I've decided to break my usual rules of forecasting and use a phrase I hate using.  This is so far unprecedented and may never happen again, so listen close... today's forecast: 30% chance of rain.

Ewww!  That made me feel so dirty.  Normally I hate when meteorologists say X% chance of rain.  But occasionally it happens where even the best of us, i.e. me, just don't know.  The best chance looks to be this morning before noon.  The radar screen today looks like some sort of Kandinsky speckled artwork.  Little blurbs here and there all over the NE.  Take your umbrella out but there aren't going to be any downpours and it's not going to be any sort of steady rain, if it does at all.  We should even see some sun mixed in throughout the day.

This spottiness is due to a weak cold front moving south out of Canada.  The front doesn't have a ton of support in its upper dynamics or its H2O fuel.  It has enough to create a little precip, but nothing to get too excited about.  The front sort of wears itself out tonight and an attached, strengthening low pushes east for Friday.  This low could possibly make for some decent rain.  The computer models are still disagreeing a bit as to which track the low will take.  Right now most of it looks to move through south Jersey and out into LI, possibly missing us, but it's too early to tell.  The weather for the rest of the weekend looks just as unsure as today and tomorrow with lots of "mini-systems" passing throughout the weekend.  Only time will tell.  Stay tuned!

Today: Scattered, light showers.  Cloudy skies with a few peeks at the sun.  High 71. Winds N @ 6-9mph.

Tonight:  Cloudy.  Evening lows in the upper 60s, down to 53 by morning.

Tomorrow:  Afternoon showers and cooler.  High 57.

The Wife

So now that I've been given the great privilege of actually being a contributor on Sam's awesome blog, I feel like I should actually contribute in some way- that is, besides just putting a way cool hit counter on the bottom of the blog (anyone notice my great little piece of handy-work?), so basically, let me know if there's anything any of you loyal (or disloyal) blog readers would like to have added to make your weather viewing experiences more enjoyable.  Links, questions, pictures, an animated little Sam or Hadley (the cat) running across your screen?  Let me know and I'll see what I can do.

In addition, I'm giving out a call for any cool pictures of weather- I know it might seem kinda "local news" but it'd be cool to see where you guys have been lately and what kind of cool clouds, storms, sunsets, etc. that you've gotten to experience.  Just throw me an email if you have any.  

Cheers!

Temps, temps, temps

Ok, ok so I slept in a little bit today.  I'm sure most of you sleep in until 9 on Saturdays, right?  I know Maggie sure does.  

So once again my temperature forecast was off by at least 3 degrees yesterday.  I feel like if I don't get my stuff together I should have some unusual weather punishment placed on me.  Feel free to submit your ideas!

Today looks to be about the same as yesterday.  A little bit warmer today as the winds will be funneling up warmer air from the south.  Clear skies for most of the day today, a few afternoon clouds could meander on in but it's nothing to worry about.  The dewpoints go up a little bit this afternoon, but still very dry by NYC standards.  Those three factors lead me to believe that temperatures will be up at least 5 degrees warmer today than yesterday.  I'm going with highs in the upper 70s with evening temps in the upper 60s and down to 59 by morning.

The clouds we start seeing this evening will be part of a front that may bring a stray shower on Thursday, but the most likely chance of rain will be Friday as a Canadian low drops down on us and could supply us with a dose of H20.  Enjoy today while it lasts!

Today: Sunny with high of 78. S winds 5-10mph

Tonight: Clouds roll in. Evening temperatures around 69 with morning low of 59.  S winds @5mph.

Sam's Weekend Is Here!

I've noticed that my recent forecasts, while almost spot on in predicting precipitation, have been less than stellar at predicting accurate temperatures.  And seeing that today's precip forecast is about as easy as (insert dirty joke here), I've decided to concentrate this forecast on getting my temperatures right.

While the low that plagued us yesterday has moved off the coast, its remnants will still effect us for the early part of today.  Luckily, this won't be in the form of precipitation, rather in the form of some morning clouds and strong northerly winds that are hanging out on the low's backside.  As the low pushes further off the coast, these clouds should go away and the winds should die down a bit.  This will leave us with clear skies and a light north breeze.  "Abundant sunshine" as the friendly computerized voice on the Weather Channel would say.

High pressure and dry air will take over for the next two days, which happen to also be my days off.  While this means clear skies and warmer temperatures during the day, it also means cool overnight lows.  Dry air, as you probably know, doesn't retain heat very well and once the sun goes down so will the temperatures.  But daytime highs will be back to average today and above average for tomorrow.  Expect highs in the upper 60s today and into the 70s for tomorrow.

This pattern should persist for the next two days.  Our next shot of rain won't be until Thursday, when another low moves through the northeast.  It looks to be tracking north of us right now and the likelihood for precip doesn't look too troubling at the moment.  I will, of course, keep you up to date as the situation progresses.

Today: Sunny and warmer, high 68.  N/NE winds 14-17mph this morning, dying down to 7mph this afternoon.

Tonight: Clear and cool. evening temps in the low/mid 60s down to 54 by morning.  North winds at 4mph.

Tomorrow: Sunny and warm again, high 74.  Winds switch to the S at 6mph.

Fully Rested... Kind of

Now that I've had a decent amount of sleep I can say with a bit more confidence what I theorized earlier.  The Weather Channel and the NWS both anticipate a big storm, which this is, but you can expect the heart of it to pass south.  

The biggest problem with this forecast is determining how long the low takes to move east.  If it goes quickly it won't be too bad; if not, there will be a bit more rain in store for us.  Right now the low is getting "fuel" by sucking in moisture from the ocean.  The longer the low stays over land the more onshore flow we get and the more time our low will have to turn that moist ocean air into rain droplets. (Winds rotate counterclockwise about a low, which happens to be over the D.C. area right now.  If you get out a map and trace a spirally circle outwards from DC you see that after you hit NY you have to pass over a lot of Atlantic Ocean; trace that line back to DC and you have your wind flow.)  If the low moves out over the ocean more quickly, which it seems to be doing, that flow around the low now has to go over land before it reaches NY.  As you can probably guess, air over land is not nearly as moist as the air over water; thus not as much fuel for our SUV of a low.  Once the fuel pump is cut off we should see an end to the rain, my guess is by mid afternoon.

The rain we will get will be overnight and tomorrow morning.  Don't be too surprised if this rain happens to come at us from the SE as it wraps around the low.  When the low does move offshore, the wind will remain our biggest nuisance.  This is a very deep low and since a high pressure area just exited our region, the pressure gradient is going to be very strong.  Big pressure gradient = big winds.  In fact, I just noticed that the NWS has issued a Wind Advisory.  Good day for wind surfing, if you have any idea whatsoever how to windsurf.

Temperatures won't go up much throughout the day.  The winds will be switching to the NE and look for these cold NE winds to keep temperatures low all day. Highs will struggle to get to 50. Ahh, springtime in New York. 

Sorry this forecast was a bit crazy and long-winded.  I hope I didn't go off on too many tangents.

Tomorrow (Monday): Rain showers until the mid-afternoon, then cloudy.  High 47.  Winds SE switching to NE at 20-25mph, gusts could be up to 40mph.

Tomorrow (Monday) night: Cloudy skies turning clear later on and remaining windy.  Evening lows in the mid/upper 40s dropping to 45 by morning.  N winds at 20mph.

Apology

First off, I want to apologize to my readers for not giving you a Saturday forecast.  Friday night was game night which means I was up until 2am playing poker and Wii.

You may ask why I'm up at 4am on a Sunday doing the weather.  It could be my raging case of insomnia, it could be that every time I fall asleep my cat lays down on my feet, or it could be the enchiladas and half pitcher of sangria I had for dinner (thanks John).  But, more than anything, it's remorse.  And I figured as long as I was up anyway, I should take a look at what mother nature has to offer us.

We're currently smack dab in between two big low pressure systems, which is good because it means high pressure for us and uneventful, easily forecasted weather for me.  The first low was our Friday rain maker and the second low looks to be headed our way for Monday.  However, tomorrow should be pleasant with clear skies and highs in the mid/upper 60s.  Some clouds roll in for the afternoon and evening as this new low approaches.  Look for evening temps to fall into the upper 50s and down to 49 by Monday morning. 

The Monday low will be the next weather headline but specifics are sketchy right now.  In my opinion, it looks like the winds will wreak more havoc than the rain for our area.  The bulk of the system may pass to our south but it's too early to tell.  Expect further details tonight as the system nears and I have a sufficient amount of sleep.

Today:  Sunny with some afternoon clouds, high 66. Winds NE switching to SE at about 10mph.

Tonight:  Cloudy skies with temps 56-58 in the evening; low of 49 by morning with showers. SE winds near 20-25mph.

Updated update

The more I look at this system, the more I seem to doubt it.  Like that guy at the gym who seems all bad and stuff (you know him), but is really pretty lame... that's what this looks like.  

Don't get me wrong, it's not going to be a beautiful day, but it's not as bleak as some people are forecasting it.  Looks like the main chunk of the low will be passing to our south, as I think I noted earlier (if I didn't say it I totally thought it).  However, I also think it's going to move out a lot slower than previously anticipated.  So while we won't be hit head on, it will linger for some time, probably through early Saturday morning.  

Temperatures remaining steady throughout the day, even dropping some as the back side of the front passes over us.  Damp and rainy with highs in the mid 50s today and sinking to the low 50s by nightfall.  Try not to have too much fun with this forecast.

Recap:

Today:  Rainy, some heavy rain mid-morn/early afternoon with high of 55. E winds at 15mph.

Tonight: Rainy again, most of the heavy rain will be in the early evening, lows dropping to about 50 in the evening and going down to 47 by morning.

Update

Once this round of morning showers die out we should stay dry for the rest of the day.  After midnight tonight the likelihood for more rain goes way up.  Today might be a bit sticky with dewpoints in the upper 50s and temperatures in the mid 70s.  Evening looks like it will be a little drier with temps in the low 60s.

Recap:  

Today: morning rain ending by 10am with a high around 76

Tonight: dry and cooler, evening temperature 62 down to 52 by morning.

Return of the Meti

That's pronounced met-eye.  I was trying to get as close to Jedi as I could but that's about the best I could do. 

As my title states I am making my triumphant return after my long (by Sun I meant Wed) hiatus.  I came down with a bad Midwestern cold and was unable to do anything but drink tea and watch Futurama dvds for two and half days.  But in my defense, the NY weather scene has been pretty boring lately.  Remember, "boring" to a meteorologist means nice, pleasant weather where there is no chance of damage to property or human beings.  However, that may change over the next few days.

We currently have two low-pressure systems lying off to our west.  The first, over eastern Lake Superior, will head east tonight and will drag with it a cold front that could bring some rain towards morning.  This front is also linked to the second low, currently over Missouri, which will slide in Friday and has the potential to produce quite a bit of rain.

While neither of these systems will be hitting us head-on, we can certainly expect some of their unfortunate side effects.  I feel tonight's system, if we get anything, will be light and during the early morning hours (say 5-6am).  I expect it to slide to our north but don't rule out a passing shower.  Temperatures shouldn't drop too much from the front and will be around 62 by morning.  

After morning we dry out but the second system lurks on the horizon.  The next round of storms will probably not start up until the late evening hours, but don't rule out a random afternoon shower or t-storm.  Storms become even more likely towards Friday morning and throughout the entire day Friday and even possibly into early Saturday.  Temperatures in the low 70s (72) Thursday but dropping to the mid 60s (66) on Friday.

The bulk of the rain will hopefully pass to our south but expect some rain.  The weather service is calling for up to 2 in of rain in some places through Saturday.  I will do my best to keep you informed more tonight and tomorrow as the situation progresses.  Please drop me a line if you have any questions of specifics about the forecast.  This one was a bit of a doozy, so I appreciate you reading it and apologize if it was too long.