Half-Marathon Forecast

As far as I can tell, the runners tomorrow should have almost ideal weather conditions.  Temperatures could be a little lower, but they're not too bad considering it is July and it is New York.  Highs around race-time should be in the low 70s and into the low to mid 70s by race-end.  Some clouds will help make temps seem a lot cooler, especially on the areas of the course where there is no shade. Humidity levels will be a bit higher than today but it won't be too steamy.  There will be a slight headwind going south as there will be light SW winds.  We are likely to see some showers and t-storms tomorrow but they should hold off until after the race.  Overall, not too shabby.  Good luck to everyone and stay safe!

Tomorrow morning:  Cloudy skies with temps around 72-74 degrees.  SW winds @ 4-8 mph.

Tomorrow afternoon:  Cloudy skies with showers and t-storms in the afternoon and evening hrs.  High 84.  Winds SW @ 6-10 mph.

Tomorrow night:  Showers and t-storms likely.  Low 73.  Winds SW @ 4-7 mph.

Monday:  Clouds and sun with afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 87.

"Fresh" Air

Our turtle-like cold front has finally passed and, as you can probably guess, high pressure has taken control.  This means cooler, and more importantly, drier air.  I was actually able to open my windows last night for the first time in weeks!  

These drier, more pleasant conditions should persist through tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.  Tomorrow night, another cold front begins to move in from the Great Lakes and it looks like we may see some rain overnight Saturday and into early Sunday morning for the people running the half-marathon.  I'll give my running friends a more detailed forecast either this afternoon or tomorrow.  Until then, enjoy the sunshine!

Today:  Sunny and drier.  High 87.  Winds W switching to S @ 6-8 mph.

Tonight:  Clear.  Low 68.  Light SW winds.

Tomorrow:  Sunny with a few clouds developing in the afternoon.  High 88.  Winds S @ 7-11 mph.

Two Of Every... Forget It

Today's forecast is not looking nearly as bleak as it did yesterday at this time.  Yesterday, after I forecasted, I began building an ark 80 cubits in length.  But then there was this issue of wood and also I had to go to work so it didn't really get finished . . . or started.  But that's ok because our situation is not as grim as I thought it might be.

The front is almost directly overhead of us now and will completely pass through later this afternoon.  It is still pretty slow-moving (we've received over 1.25" of rain so far) and that means the showers that are going on right now will persist into the late morning hours.  However, once they stop (probably in the next 2-3 hrs) we should be done with the rain.  There is a large dry-sector of air behind the front so once it passes through there should be very little moisture to work with for this afternoon and evening.  And it's a good thing too because I got a C in jr. high shop class.

Today:  Rain through this morning then cloudy.  High 77.  Winds S @ 9-16 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy.  Low 69.  Winds NW @ 5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and dry.  High 85.  Winds SSW @ 5-8 mph.

Water Water Everywhere

I apologize for not making a forecast yesterday.  Mostly, it was just so boring that I couldn't bring myself to make an interesting forecast.  Luckily, we are going to be having some sexy weather over the next few days.  That is, if you find windy, t-storms with torrential rain sexy... which I do.

The main culprit for these storms will be a slow-moving cold front working it's way eastward.  The front is currently draped across western PA and NY.  It will slowly move east today and will not fully push out until late tomorrow.  Behind it, we have a deep low pressure system that will get together with the front and create some hot, stormy-love.

As you have probably noticed we've had some showers/t-storms moving through the area this morning.  The rain will subside here in the city for the next few hrs and then resume later on this afternoon with greater intensity.  Some storms could be severe and justly the SPC has put us under a "Slight" risk.  The greatest risk from the storms looks to just be heavy rain and winds but there is a possibility there could even be hail or a tornado, although the best chances for that will be more upstate.

Tomorrow, the risk of severe storms subsides but the likelihood for rain goes up even more.  The computer models are not in complete agreement with each other but I think we can expect a decent amount of rain.  We could easily see over 2" of rain before all's said and done on Thurs night.  It looks to be more of an all-day rain event, but there will definitely be periods of heavier rain.  The NWS has put out a Flash Flood Watch that, in my opinion, will probably become a warning by tomorrow or even later today.  Umbrellas may be necessary.

Today:  Cloudy with showers and t-storms developing early this afternoon.  High 80.  Winds SE @ 10-15 mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms throughout the night.  Low 72.  Winds SE @ 12-16mph.

Tomorrow:  Showers and t-storms throughout the day.  Heavy rain possible.  High 78.  Winds SE @ 12-20mph.

Tornado!

Here's a pretty sick picture of a tornado that touched down in Hugo, MN Northeast of Minneapolis.  (Thanks Adam!)  Just so you all know- we don't (or at least I don't) condone ever getting this close to a tornado- however wicked a picture you might get.  

I Came Back For This???

After experiencing a beautiful week of midwestern weather, one that even included a day of severe t-storms, I was disgusted yesterday by what I came back to.  As my two year old nephews would say "Garbage."  And unfortunately this garbage weather is going to persist for two more days.

We have a similar setup to the previous heat-waves that have been plaguing us this summer.  Ridge of high pressure, and hot humid air being scooped up from the SW.  This scenario will continue until Tues afternoon when a cold front makes it way eastward out of the Great Lakes.  This should bring us some more seasonable temperatures for later in the week.

As for this hurricane Cristobal I've been hearing about... yeah, I've heard nothing.  It looks like it will pose no threat for us, but I'm going to refer you to the National Hurricane Center.  Coming from WI, we tend to not delve too deep into hurricane forecasting.

Today:  Hot and humid with scattered afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 91.  Winds SW @ 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers/t-storms.  Then clearing.  Low 76.  Winds S @ 4-6 mph.

Tomorrow:  Humid and warm.  Afternoon showers/t-storms are possible.  High 88.

Hiatus

Sorry folks, I forgot to announce it but the 'cast will be on hiatus for a week as I visit the pristine Midwest.  For up-to-date weather analysis, consult this guy... he seems reputable, even though he is about 5'4".

L.G.

(No Funny Title Day)

After several days in a simulated steam room, our weather will be going to back to more seasonal conditions after today.  The culprit, or in this case, the savior, is a cold front coming in from the Great Lakes.  It is currently draped across western NY/PA, more or less right down the middle of lakes Erie and Ontario.  It will be working it's way SE throughout the day today and should bring some showers and thunderstorms into our area this afternoon and evening.

Today's storms look to be much more widespread than the afternoon storms we've had lately, but they probably won't go severe.  Upper level dynamics do not support anything too serious (or fun) but the further north you go the likelihood of severe weather goes up.  Westchester might have it worse than we do in the city but most of the severe weather will be further upstate towards Albany.

Looking at the current radar and satellite screens two things stand out.  One, widespread cloud cover should keep things from getting too hot today.  And two, it looks like we'll most likely see two rounds of storms.  The first will coming across from NJ late this morning, my guess is between 11 and noon.  The second will be coming from the main frontal system which looks to hit the area sometime between 5pm and 8pm this evening.  Widespread showers/t-storms are likely through probably midnight at least, maybe longer.  Storms have a lot of liquid ammo to work with, so heavy rain and some flooding is a possibility.  The good news is by tomorrow temperatures will be much closer to average and the humidity levels will be down significantly.  Hooray cold fronts!

Today:  Sun and clouds early with thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon.  High 86.  Winds SW @ 11-15 mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms ending after midnight.  Heavy rainfall possible.  Low 70.  Winds NW @ 10-12 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and cooler.  High 87.  Winds W @ 10-13 mph.

I'm Walken...

Much of the same story today as heat and humidity rule our weather picture.  The main differences will be the cloud cover situation.  Yesterday we had a lot of haze and low-level clouds.  This actually helped keep us relatively cool.  Today, those clouds will go away leaving us at the mercy of Mr. Sunshine.  This will not only raise our temperatures but will also give us a better chance for some afternoon convection.  Any storms that pop up should be short-lived and will probably die out by the late-evening hours.

Tomorrow relief is on the way in the form of a cold front.  The Bermudan High that's been funneling hot, humid air into our region will push out to sea late tomorrow and the front should sweep down from our north and usher in some cooler, more temperate weather.  More seasonable conditions will persist for Thurs and Fri as another high pressure system takes control.  Luckily, this one will be more continental in origin than tropical.  However, it should not be confused with Christopher Walken's SNL character, The Continental, which would be very hot and steamy by comparison.  

Today:  Sunny and warm.  Strong winds with a chance of an afternoon shower or t-storm.  High 88.  Winds SW @ 10-15 mph.

Tonight:  Chance for early evening shower/t-storm.  Then clearing.  Low 76.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny early then likely afternoon t-storms.  High 89.

YUCK!

Our weather over the last few days has been quite pleasant... if you're a male, silver-back gorilla.  However, if you're a mid-latitude, non rain-forest residing human being, it's been quite unpleasant.  And unfortunately for us sad and pathetic humans it's going to get worse before it gets better.

With high-pressure off the Atlantic coast still in control, warm-humid air will be the main story for the next few days.  As you can clearly see and feel it's quite humid out.  The haze and low-level clouds will be hanging around for most of the day, which may actually help to block out the sun and keep temps from rising too much.  There is a chance for rain this afternoon as the atmosphere heats up (with all this moisture there will be chances for afternoon showers/t-storms every day through Wed) but I think the most we'll have to deal with today is the humidity.  Tonight we see most of the same.  Low clouds and haze, with a slight chance of an evening shower.  With all the humidity the temps don't drop much and we'll be in for a muggy evening.

Tomorrow we see much of the same pattern but with an added bonus.  The widespread haze and low-level clouds that will protect us today will most likely be gone tomorrow, allowing the sun to shine through and really cook things up a notch (I watch a lot of Emeril).  Wednesday looks to follow the same pattern and we should see highs in the upper 80s and low 90s for Tues and Wed, respectively.  Wed night a cold front moves in from the west.  This will not only give us our best chance for showers and t-storms but will also squeeze a lot of moisture out of the atmosphere as well as giving us a break from the heat.  Although, for my gorilla friends I hope the heat and humidity persist.

Today:  Clouds and haze.  Chance of afternoon shower/t-storm. High 81.  Winds S @ 7-10 mph.

Tonight:  Cloudy and humid.  Low 72.  Winds SW @ 5-8 mph.

Tuesday:  Mixture of clouds and sun.  Chance for showers/t-storms.  High 87.  Winds SW @ 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night:  Slight chance for evening shower.  Low 75.  

Wednesday:  Hot and humid.  Afternoon t-storms.  High 90.

Nobody Better Report Me

Alright, I have to keep this one short because I have to go purchase some illegal fireworks for tomorrow.  I just hope I don't look out of place setting off fireworks in Washington Heights.

It's really too bad that I have such little time to discuss this upcoming forecast.  It's quite a doozie.  We should be in for a pretty nice day today.  We have a strong ridge of high pressure set up which should make today pretty nice.  A little warm, by my standards, but altogether a pleasant day.  Expect some clouds to roll in during the afternoon hours as a strong cold front bears down on us.  The front itself probably won't impact us until later this evening, when we could very well see some showers and t-storms.  Once again we are under the watchful eye of the good people from the SPC, who have put out a slight risk of severe weather for us.  I'm thinking we won't have to worry about anything dramatic until 1opm, but I can't be quite sure.  If I was being paid to sit here all day (which I would love to be) and monitor how fast the front was progressing I could give you much more accurate details.  But, unfortunately, I am still a retail slave for a little while longer.

By tomorrow, the front passes just south of us and then slams on the brakes.  We will probably see considerable cloudiness tomorrow while the front lingers and becomes stationary.  The first of many shortwave systems moves on through on Friday night (hopefully after my glorious display to our nation's birthday).  It looks like rain will be even more likely on Saturday.  These shortwave systems tend to be kind of erratic, so their timing and potency is often difficult to forecast.  But hey, none of you really expect me to get this right anymore now do you?

Today:  Sunny and warm.  High 87.  Winds SW @12-18 mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms in the evening.  Some may be badass.  Evening temps in the low 80s before the front passes.  Morning low down to 73.

Tomorrow:  Showers linger on in the morning, some partial afternoon clearing.  High 80.  Winds light and variable.

Tomorrow night:  Cloudy with showers and t-storms possible after midnight.  Low 68.

Saturday:  Showers and t-storms throughout the day.  High 78.

Cliches Cliches

Well boys and girls, I have the unfortunate honor of breaking the news to you that Santa Claus does not exist.  By that I mean our 4th of July weekend is going to be less than stellar.  However, in looking at our upcoming weather, it's important to remember the old saying "every cloud has a silver lining".  Personally, as a meteorologist, I never understood this saying.  In dealing with clouds, you'd think you'd want a cloud with a white lining not a silver one.  I would imagine a silver one would be darker and thus have more water vapor contained within it than a normal cloud and would probably be a nimbus or rain-making cloud.  Plus, who's ever even seen a silver cloud?

Sorry, I went off on a bit of a tangent there.  Back to more pressing matters, like today's weather, which actually isn't that pressing.  Currently we have an upper-level disturbance located over central NY and PA.  This is going to move NE by mid afternoon and take with it any and all chances of precip for today.  As of now it looks pretty harmless but I can't say there's zero chance of rain.  There may be a rogue shower in the early afternoon hrs but anything that comes up will be isolated and probably short-lived.  Once the disturbance moves out a dominating high pressure ridge sets up and we get a return of southerly winds and clear skies that should last until late tomorrow.  

Late Thursday night a cold front drops down out of Canada and then settles nicely into our area.  By Friday the front becomes stationary and will remain with us until at least Sunday if not into early next week.  This stationary front will spawn multiple shortwave systems that will pass through the area throughout the weekend.  The weekend will not be a complete washout but there is a decent chance for precip every day from Friday on.  I know, I'm a jerk.

Today:  Tiny chance of showers before 2pm, then sunny.  High 87.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tonight:  Clear.  Low 70. Winds SW @ 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and warm. Breezy.  High 89.  Winds SW @ 13-17 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Showers and t-storms possible towards morning.  Low 73.  

Friday:  Cloudy and cooler.  Chance of showers and t-storms.  High 83.

Imagin-ation... i-mag-in-a-eh-tion!

Unfortunately, some days I'm just not feeling very creative or humorous (I think that title will be lost on everyone but Maggie).  Today is just one of those days.  Maybe it's because I was up late watching cartoons and doing crosswords, or maybe it's because New York summers make me want to slap my forehead with the palm of my hand and shake my head incessantly.  Either way, I apologize if today's forecast is less than entertaining.  It is heavy on the weather, however. 

Yesterday's cold front has now officially moved offshore but a secondary cold front lingers behind it to our west.  There is actually a really great picture of the two from the satellite this morning.  Nerdy as it may be (and it is) I think it's amazing to see such detail on the cloud tops all the way from space.  The second cold front is going to move through our area this afternoon but will weaken as it does so.  With that said, there may still be enough energy from daytime heating and enough moisture in the atmosphere to create some isolated showers and t-storms.

This evening the cold front more or less completely dissipates and the trough that accompanied it begins to slowly move NE.  Once the trough passes over us, high pressure will build in from the SW and we get the return of warm, southerly air that will continue through Wed night.  Luckily, the air mass is more continental than maritime, so humidity levels should be lower and more comfortable. 

On Thursday a cold from moves south out of Canada and then grinds to a halt just north of us.  As it slows down this front will have sort of a sandbagging effect on the atmosphere and will allow more humid, southerly air to mass in the NE.  It looks as though the holiday weekend may be steamy and sticky.  Happy birthday America! 

Today:  Sunny with a chance of isolated afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 84.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tonight:  Showers/t-storms early, then clearing.  Low 68.  Winds W @ 5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny.  High 86.  Winds SW @ 10-14 mph.

Tomorrow night:  Clear.  Low 71.

Thursday:  Sunny with a few clouds.  High 88.