The biggest problem with this forecast is determining how long the low takes to move east. If it goes quickly it won't be too bad; if not, there will be a bit more rain in store for us. Right now the low is getting "fuel" by sucking in moisture from the ocean. The longer the low stays over land the more onshore flow we get and the more time our low will have to turn that moist ocean air into rain droplets. (Winds rotate counterclockwise about a low, which happens to be over the D.C. area right now. If you get out a map and trace a spirally circle outwards from DC you see that after you hit NY you have to pass over a lot of Atlantic Ocean; trace that line back to DC and you have your wind flow.) If the low moves out over the ocean more quickly, which it seems to be doing, that flow around the low now has to go over land before it reaches NY. As you can probably guess, air over land is not nearly as moist as the air over water; thus not as much fuel for our SUV of a low. Once the fuel pump is cut off we should see an end to the rain, my guess is by mid afternoon.
The rain we will get will be overnight and tomorrow morning. Don't be too surprised if this rain happens to come at us from the SE as it wraps around the low. When the low does move offshore, the wind will remain our biggest nuisance. This is a very deep low and since a high pressure area just exited our region, the pressure gradient is going to be very strong. Big pressure gradient = big winds. In fact, I just noticed that the NWS has issued a Wind Advisory. Good day for wind surfing, if you have any idea whatsoever how to windsurf.
Temperatures won't go up much throughout the day. The winds will be switching to the NE and look for these cold NE winds to keep temperatures low all day. Highs will struggle to get to 50. Ahh, springtime in New York.
Sorry this forecast was a bit crazy and long-winded. I hope I didn't go off on too many tangents.
Tomorrow (Monday): Rain showers until the mid-afternoon, then cloudy. High 47. Winds SE switching to NE at 20-25mph, gusts could be up to 40mph.
Tomorrow (Monday) night: Cloudy skies turning clear later on and remaining windy. Evening lows in the mid/upper 40s dropping to 45 by morning. N winds at 20mph.
2 comments:
I would have liked this forecast to detail which side of the street would be more advantageous to walk on during this blazing rain storm. That would be extremely useful if I was in NYC. I don't think it will make one whit of difference to me while I am in Minneapolis, however.
Just wondering, when the fuel pump goes to hell on that low, will you dispose of it properly, or will you just lock it up in your giant barn/garage?
Sorry. Couldn't resist that one.
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