Farewell!

After an Arrested Developlment-like run I'm afraid to inform my readers that Samcast is ending.  I have taken a meteorology position in Minneapolis/St. Paul and unfortunately will be unable to provide New Yorkers with the uber-accurate (and witty) forecasts you've all come to know and love.  I thank you all for logging on and reading and I wish you all the very best.

Half-Marathon Forecast

As far as I can tell, the runners tomorrow should have almost ideal weather conditions.  Temperatures could be a little lower, but they're not too bad considering it is July and it is New York.  Highs around race-time should be in the low 70s and into the low to mid 70s by race-end.  Some clouds will help make temps seem a lot cooler, especially on the areas of the course where there is no shade. Humidity levels will be a bit higher than today but it won't be too steamy.  There will be a slight headwind going south as there will be light SW winds.  We are likely to see some showers and t-storms tomorrow but they should hold off until after the race.  Overall, not too shabby.  Good luck to everyone and stay safe!

Tomorrow morning:  Cloudy skies with temps around 72-74 degrees.  SW winds @ 4-8 mph.

Tomorrow afternoon:  Cloudy skies with showers and t-storms in the afternoon and evening hrs.  High 84.  Winds SW @ 6-10 mph.

Tomorrow night:  Showers and t-storms likely.  Low 73.  Winds SW @ 4-7 mph.

Monday:  Clouds and sun with afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 87.

"Fresh" Air

Our turtle-like cold front has finally passed and, as you can probably guess, high pressure has taken control.  This means cooler, and more importantly, drier air.  I was actually able to open my windows last night for the first time in weeks!  

These drier, more pleasant conditions should persist through tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.  Tomorrow night, another cold front begins to move in from the Great Lakes and it looks like we may see some rain overnight Saturday and into early Sunday morning for the people running the half-marathon.  I'll give my running friends a more detailed forecast either this afternoon or tomorrow.  Until then, enjoy the sunshine!

Today:  Sunny and drier.  High 87.  Winds W switching to S @ 6-8 mph.

Tonight:  Clear.  Low 68.  Light SW winds.

Tomorrow:  Sunny with a few clouds developing in the afternoon.  High 88.  Winds S @ 7-11 mph.

Two Of Every... Forget It

Today's forecast is not looking nearly as bleak as it did yesterday at this time.  Yesterday, after I forecasted, I began building an ark 80 cubits in length.  But then there was this issue of wood and also I had to go to work so it didn't really get finished . . . or started.  But that's ok because our situation is not as grim as I thought it might be.

The front is almost directly overhead of us now and will completely pass through later this afternoon.  It is still pretty slow-moving (we've received over 1.25" of rain so far) and that means the showers that are going on right now will persist into the late morning hours.  However, once they stop (probably in the next 2-3 hrs) we should be done with the rain.  There is a large dry-sector of air behind the front so once it passes through there should be very little moisture to work with for this afternoon and evening.  And it's a good thing too because I got a C in jr. high shop class.

Today:  Rain through this morning then cloudy.  High 77.  Winds S @ 9-16 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy.  Low 69.  Winds NW @ 5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and dry.  High 85.  Winds SSW @ 5-8 mph.

Water Water Everywhere

I apologize for not making a forecast yesterday.  Mostly, it was just so boring that I couldn't bring myself to make an interesting forecast.  Luckily, we are going to be having some sexy weather over the next few days.  That is, if you find windy, t-storms with torrential rain sexy... which I do.

The main culprit for these storms will be a slow-moving cold front working it's way eastward.  The front is currently draped across western PA and NY.  It will slowly move east today and will not fully push out until late tomorrow.  Behind it, we have a deep low pressure system that will get together with the front and create some hot, stormy-love.

As you have probably noticed we've had some showers/t-storms moving through the area this morning.  The rain will subside here in the city for the next few hrs and then resume later on this afternoon with greater intensity.  Some storms could be severe and justly the SPC has put us under a "Slight" risk.  The greatest risk from the storms looks to just be heavy rain and winds but there is a possibility there could even be hail or a tornado, although the best chances for that will be more upstate.

Tomorrow, the risk of severe storms subsides but the likelihood for rain goes up even more.  The computer models are not in complete agreement with each other but I think we can expect a decent amount of rain.  We could easily see over 2" of rain before all's said and done on Thurs night.  It looks to be more of an all-day rain event, but there will definitely be periods of heavier rain.  The NWS has put out a Flash Flood Watch that, in my opinion, will probably become a warning by tomorrow or even later today.  Umbrellas may be necessary.

Today:  Cloudy with showers and t-storms developing early this afternoon.  High 80.  Winds SE @ 10-15 mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms throughout the night.  Low 72.  Winds SE @ 12-16mph.

Tomorrow:  Showers and t-storms throughout the day.  Heavy rain possible.  High 78.  Winds SE @ 12-20mph.

Tornado!

Here's a pretty sick picture of a tornado that touched down in Hugo, MN Northeast of Minneapolis.  (Thanks Adam!)  Just so you all know- we don't (or at least I don't) condone ever getting this close to a tornado- however wicked a picture you might get.  

I Came Back For This???

After experiencing a beautiful week of midwestern weather, one that even included a day of severe t-storms, I was disgusted yesterday by what I came back to.  As my two year old nephews would say "Garbage."  And unfortunately this garbage weather is going to persist for two more days.

We have a similar setup to the previous heat-waves that have been plaguing us this summer.  Ridge of high pressure, and hot humid air being scooped up from the SW.  This scenario will continue until Tues afternoon when a cold front makes it way eastward out of the Great Lakes.  This should bring us some more seasonable temperatures for later in the week.

As for this hurricane Cristobal I've been hearing about... yeah, I've heard nothing.  It looks like it will pose no threat for us, but I'm going to refer you to the National Hurricane Center.  Coming from WI, we tend to not delve too deep into hurricane forecasting.

Today:  Hot and humid with scattered afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 91.  Winds SW @ 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers/t-storms.  Then clearing.  Low 76.  Winds S @ 4-6 mph.

Tomorrow:  Humid and warm.  Afternoon showers/t-storms are possible.  High 88.

Hiatus

Sorry folks, I forgot to announce it but the 'cast will be on hiatus for a week as I visit the pristine Midwest.  For up-to-date weather analysis, consult this guy... he seems reputable, even though he is about 5'4".

L.G.

(No Funny Title Day)

After several days in a simulated steam room, our weather will be going to back to more seasonal conditions after today.  The culprit, or in this case, the savior, is a cold front coming in from the Great Lakes.  It is currently draped across western NY/PA, more or less right down the middle of lakes Erie and Ontario.  It will be working it's way SE throughout the day today and should bring some showers and thunderstorms into our area this afternoon and evening.

Today's storms look to be much more widespread than the afternoon storms we've had lately, but they probably won't go severe.  Upper level dynamics do not support anything too serious (or fun) but the further north you go the likelihood of severe weather goes up.  Westchester might have it worse than we do in the city but most of the severe weather will be further upstate towards Albany.

Looking at the current radar and satellite screens two things stand out.  One, widespread cloud cover should keep things from getting too hot today.  And two, it looks like we'll most likely see two rounds of storms.  The first will coming across from NJ late this morning, my guess is between 11 and noon.  The second will be coming from the main frontal system which looks to hit the area sometime between 5pm and 8pm this evening.  Widespread showers/t-storms are likely through probably midnight at least, maybe longer.  Storms have a lot of liquid ammo to work with, so heavy rain and some flooding is a possibility.  The good news is by tomorrow temperatures will be much closer to average and the humidity levels will be down significantly.  Hooray cold fronts!

Today:  Sun and clouds early with thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon.  High 86.  Winds SW @ 11-15 mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms ending after midnight.  Heavy rainfall possible.  Low 70.  Winds NW @ 10-12 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and cooler.  High 87.  Winds W @ 10-13 mph.

I'm Walken...

Much of the same story today as heat and humidity rule our weather picture.  The main differences will be the cloud cover situation.  Yesterday we had a lot of haze and low-level clouds.  This actually helped keep us relatively cool.  Today, those clouds will go away leaving us at the mercy of Mr. Sunshine.  This will not only raise our temperatures but will also give us a better chance for some afternoon convection.  Any storms that pop up should be short-lived and will probably die out by the late-evening hours.

Tomorrow relief is on the way in the form of a cold front.  The Bermudan High that's been funneling hot, humid air into our region will push out to sea late tomorrow and the front should sweep down from our north and usher in some cooler, more temperate weather.  More seasonable conditions will persist for Thurs and Fri as another high pressure system takes control.  Luckily, this one will be more continental in origin than tropical.  However, it should not be confused with Christopher Walken's SNL character, The Continental, which would be very hot and steamy by comparison.  

Today:  Sunny and warm.  Strong winds with a chance of an afternoon shower or t-storm.  High 88.  Winds SW @ 10-15 mph.

Tonight:  Chance for early evening shower/t-storm.  Then clearing.  Low 76.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny early then likely afternoon t-storms.  High 89.

YUCK!

Our weather over the last few days has been quite pleasant... if you're a male, silver-back gorilla.  However, if you're a mid-latitude, non rain-forest residing human being, it's been quite unpleasant.  And unfortunately for us sad and pathetic humans it's going to get worse before it gets better.

With high-pressure off the Atlantic coast still in control, warm-humid air will be the main story for the next few days.  As you can clearly see and feel it's quite humid out.  The haze and low-level clouds will be hanging around for most of the day, which may actually help to block out the sun and keep temps from rising too much.  There is a chance for rain this afternoon as the atmosphere heats up (with all this moisture there will be chances for afternoon showers/t-storms every day through Wed) but I think the most we'll have to deal with today is the humidity.  Tonight we see most of the same.  Low clouds and haze, with a slight chance of an evening shower.  With all the humidity the temps don't drop much and we'll be in for a muggy evening.

Tomorrow we see much of the same pattern but with an added bonus.  The widespread haze and low-level clouds that will protect us today will most likely be gone tomorrow, allowing the sun to shine through and really cook things up a notch (I watch a lot of Emeril).  Wednesday looks to follow the same pattern and we should see highs in the upper 80s and low 90s for Tues and Wed, respectively.  Wed night a cold front moves in from the west.  This will not only give us our best chance for showers and t-storms but will also squeeze a lot of moisture out of the atmosphere as well as giving us a break from the heat.  Although, for my gorilla friends I hope the heat and humidity persist.

Today:  Clouds and haze.  Chance of afternoon shower/t-storm. High 81.  Winds S @ 7-10 mph.

Tonight:  Cloudy and humid.  Low 72.  Winds SW @ 5-8 mph.

Tuesday:  Mixture of clouds and sun.  Chance for showers/t-storms.  High 87.  Winds SW @ 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night:  Slight chance for evening shower.  Low 75.  

Wednesday:  Hot and humid.  Afternoon t-storms.  High 90.

Nobody Better Report Me

Alright, I have to keep this one short because I have to go purchase some illegal fireworks for tomorrow.  I just hope I don't look out of place setting off fireworks in Washington Heights.

It's really too bad that I have such little time to discuss this upcoming forecast.  It's quite a doozie.  We should be in for a pretty nice day today.  We have a strong ridge of high pressure set up which should make today pretty nice.  A little warm, by my standards, but altogether a pleasant day.  Expect some clouds to roll in during the afternoon hours as a strong cold front bears down on us.  The front itself probably won't impact us until later this evening, when we could very well see some showers and t-storms.  Once again we are under the watchful eye of the good people from the SPC, who have put out a slight risk of severe weather for us.  I'm thinking we won't have to worry about anything dramatic until 1opm, but I can't be quite sure.  If I was being paid to sit here all day (which I would love to be) and monitor how fast the front was progressing I could give you much more accurate details.  But, unfortunately, I am still a retail slave for a little while longer.

By tomorrow, the front passes just south of us and then slams on the brakes.  We will probably see considerable cloudiness tomorrow while the front lingers and becomes stationary.  The first of many shortwave systems moves on through on Friday night (hopefully after my glorious display to our nation's birthday).  It looks like rain will be even more likely on Saturday.  These shortwave systems tend to be kind of erratic, so their timing and potency is often difficult to forecast.  But hey, none of you really expect me to get this right anymore now do you?

Today:  Sunny and warm.  High 87.  Winds SW @12-18 mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms in the evening.  Some may be badass.  Evening temps in the low 80s before the front passes.  Morning low down to 73.

Tomorrow:  Showers linger on in the morning, some partial afternoon clearing.  High 80.  Winds light and variable.

Tomorrow night:  Cloudy with showers and t-storms possible after midnight.  Low 68.

Saturday:  Showers and t-storms throughout the day.  High 78.

Cliches Cliches

Well boys and girls, I have the unfortunate honor of breaking the news to you that Santa Claus does not exist.  By that I mean our 4th of July weekend is going to be less than stellar.  However, in looking at our upcoming weather, it's important to remember the old saying "every cloud has a silver lining".  Personally, as a meteorologist, I never understood this saying.  In dealing with clouds, you'd think you'd want a cloud with a white lining not a silver one.  I would imagine a silver one would be darker and thus have more water vapor contained within it than a normal cloud and would probably be a nimbus or rain-making cloud.  Plus, who's ever even seen a silver cloud?

Sorry, I went off on a bit of a tangent there.  Back to more pressing matters, like today's weather, which actually isn't that pressing.  Currently we have an upper-level disturbance located over central NY and PA.  This is going to move NE by mid afternoon and take with it any and all chances of precip for today.  As of now it looks pretty harmless but I can't say there's zero chance of rain.  There may be a rogue shower in the early afternoon hrs but anything that comes up will be isolated and probably short-lived.  Once the disturbance moves out a dominating high pressure ridge sets up and we get a return of southerly winds and clear skies that should last until late tomorrow.  

Late Thursday night a cold front drops down out of Canada and then settles nicely into our area.  By Friday the front becomes stationary and will remain with us until at least Sunday if not into early next week.  This stationary front will spawn multiple shortwave systems that will pass through the area throughout the weekend.  The weekend will not be a complete washout but there is a decent chance for precip every day from Friday on.  I know, I'm a jerk.

Today:  Tiny chance of showers before 2pm, then sunny.  High 87.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tonight:  Clear.  Low 70. Winds SW @ 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and warm. Breezy.  High 89.  Winds SW @ 13-17 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Showers and t-storms possible towards morning.  Low 73.  

Friday:  Cloudy and cooler.  Chance of showers and t-storms.  High 83.

Imagin-ation... i-mag-in-a-eh-tion!

Unfortunately, some days I'm just not feeling very creative or humorous (I think that title will be lost on everyone but Maggie).  Today is just one of those days.  Maybe it's because I was up late watching cartoons and doing crosswords, or maybe it's because New York summers make me want to slap my forehead with the palm of my hand and shake my head incessantly.  Either way, I apologize if today's forecast is less than entertaining.  It is heavy on the weather, however. 

Yesterday's cold front has now officially moved offshore but a secondary cold front lingers behind it to our west.  There is actually a really great picture of the two from the satellite this morning.  Nerdy as it may be (and it is) I think it's amazing to see such detail on the cloud tops all the way from space.  The second cold front is going to move through our area this afternoon but will weaken as it does so.  With that said, there may still be enough energy from daytime heating and enough moisture in the atmosphere to create some isolated showers and t-storms.

This evening the cold front more or less completely dissipates and the trough that accompanied it begins to slowly move NE.  Once the trough passes over us, high pressure will build in from the SW and we get the return of warm, southerly air that will continue through Wed night.  Luckily, the air mass is more continental than maritime, so humidity levels should be lower and more comfortable. 

On Thursday a cold from moves south out of Canada and then grinds to a halt just north of us.  As it slows down this front will have sort of a sandbagging effect on the atmosphere and will allow more humid, southerly air to mass in the NE.  It looks as though the holiday weekend may be steamy and sticky.  Happy birthday America! 

Today:  Sunny with a chance of isolated afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 84.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tonight:  Showers/t-storms early, then clearing.  Low 68.  Winds W @ 5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny.  High 86.  Winds SW @ 10-14 mph.

Tomorrow night:  Clear.  Low 71.

Thursday:  Sunny with a few clouds.  High 88.

Sciencey Goodness

Lately a lot of people have been asking me, "Sam, what's the deal with all these storms?" or "Why has it been raining so much?"  The scientific answer to those questions are that Vulcan and Zeus are out to get us and enjoy raining down thunderbolts upon our happy little centaur party with Bacchus.  Oh wait, that's from Fantasia.  The real answer is that with all this moisture and heat that's been with us lately, it takes very little effort on the atmosphere's part to generate storms.  It's also why the storms have been so erratic.  With no obvious forcing mechanisms, i.e. a front or a low pressure system, storms tend to spring up pretty randomly.  (there are countless reasons for this, but I won't bore you with them here)  Unfortunately, these conditions will persist for the next few days.

Today not much is going on.  A weak, slow moving cold front will approach us from the west this evening and may kick off a few showers and t-storms but nothing substantial.  The front slowly moves east Tuesday and we get another lovely high pressure system building off the Carolina coast.  You all know what this means, more heat and humidity for NYC.  That high will remain in effect until late Thursday when we see another cold front move in from the NW.  Once this second front moves through, conditions look to stabilize a bit and we may see some "normal" weather for a few days, if such a thing exists in the summer during the 21st century.

Back to today:  a trough associated with the aforementioned cold front sits off to our west.  Like I said it's slowly inching it's way east and will probably not effect us until later today, more into the evening hrs.  We still have a lot of moisture in the air and any storms that pop up could be both slow moving and contain heavy rain; a little different than the storms we've seen over the past few days.  Storms may continue into late tonight and early tomorrow morning.  Once the storms dissipate we should have a pleasant day tomorrow.  Lower humidities and sunshine... on a Tuesday... what a waste.

Today:  Cloudy with slight, slight chance of afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 86.  Winds SW @ 9-12 mph.

Tonight:  Scattered showers and t-storms.  Evening lows in the upper 70s, down to 68 by morning.  Winds W @ 6 mph.

Tomorrow:  Scattered clouds but otherwise sunny.  High 84.  Winds S @ 8-10 mph.

Tomorrow night:  Clear with a few clouds.  Low 68.  

Wednesday:  Sunny.  High 87.  

Sunday Edition

Everyone rejoice!  I'm coming to you with a special Sunday posting.  I don't know how many people will actually read it, because my track record for updating the blog on weekends is not exactly stellar.  But we may have some interesting weather happening today so maybe someone will be curious and check to see what's going on.

What's going on is heat and humidity are still dominating the scene.  A large upper-level low is moving out of the Great Lakes region and will be the culprit for unsettled weather over the next few days.  Today looks to be an especially good chance for heavy rain. There is clearly a great deal of moisture in the air and we have a relatively unstable atmosphere.  The heaviest rains may be to our north, in the Catskills, but it's very likely we could see downpours all the way south through the city and into southern NJ.  Severe storms may be likely but it looks like the biggest concern will be torrential rain within any individual storm cells.  Any developing storms will probably move through quickly, so it will not be a all-day rain event.

Tomorrow looks to be a similar scenario, although with a lower chance of heavy rain, however, tomorrow night a cold front will move through the area and that will hopefully give us a bit of a reprieve from the heat and humidity.

Today:  Showers and t-storms throughout the day, most likely in the afternoon.  High 85.  Winds S @ 9-13 mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms.  Low 73.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tomorrow:  Cloudy with some sun.  Afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 84.

Last Soccer Entry... Maybe

Anyone who watched the soccer game yesterday saw two things: the lovable Russians were sent home (who would've ever thought Russians could be lovable?) and the producers at ESPN finally got their act together and showed me some stylish, Euro-weather.  I'll bet it has an accent.

Back here, across the pond, we could be in for some stylish weather of our own.  Unfortunately, the main point concerning our forecast is the heat.  As Elaine from Seinfeld would say, "and the heat, my God the heat!"  High pressure will continue to push warm, tropical air into our region for the next several days, making this weekend a bit uncomfortable.  And as if that wasn't bad enough news, the sky looks to remain quite unsettled as well.

A series of small disturbances will wreak havoc on our area through Sunday.  By Monday a large, upper-level system will move out of the Great Lakes and should give us a reprieve from the hot, stickiness.  Until then, get yourself a fan and a cool beverage and suck it up.

Today:  Hot and humid.  Likely afternoon t-storms, some may be severe.  Downpours, strong winds, wrath of God, etc.  High 88.  Winds SW @ 7-10 mph.

Tonight:  Showers/t-storms likely through the evening hrs.  Clearing late.  Evening lows in the mid 80s and only going down to 76 by morning.  Winds W @ 4-6 mph.

Saturday:  Hot and humid with afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 89.  Winds S @ 9-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Evening showers and t-storms.  Low 74.

Sunday:  Showers and t-storms.  Slightly cooler.  High 85.

ESPN Drops the Ball

For anyone who watched the soccer game yesterday, you know that the ESPN crew claimed lightning knocked out the international feed.  And what horrible timing.  Why couldn't it have happened during one of those boring Italy games?  But the saddest part of this story was the fact that when they came back on the air, all I could think was, "Why don't they show some footage of this storm!"  I am such a dork.

Luckily, I may get to see some real-life storms today.  Currently, there is a cluster of showers moving ENE out of the Ohio Valley.  Although right now they're almost only showers, there is a chance of t-storms popping up later today.  This rain should be making its way into our area over the next few hrs or so, some might already be occurring in parts of the Bronx.  This round will probably last into the early afternoon and then we'll see a bit of a break.  After this break is where things get dicey.  We have a few elements in place for some late afternoon/early evening storms but are lacking in a major trigger to really get things going.  It's still possible for us to see some medium/strong storms this evening.

Any storminess should die down this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the SW.  This should bring in some warmer air from the south and make things a bit sticky for the next few days.  Lows tonight will only drop down to the mid 70s and tomorrow we heat up into the low 90s with possible heat indices in the mid-90s.  As Rachel Ray would say, "Yum-O!"

Today:  Morning rain showers with clearing in the afternoon.  Evening t-storms likely.  High 84.  Winds SW @ 8-12 mph.

Tonight:  Storms early on, then clearing.  Warm and humid.  Evening lows in the low 80s down to 74 by morning.  Winds NW @ 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Hot and humid.  Late-day showers/t-storms possible.  High 92.

Saturday:  Warm with possible afternoon storms.  High 89.

Sunday: Showers and t-storms.  High 85.

I Have Issues

Meteorologists are often faced with situations that are a bit enigmatic (warm air rises, but rising air cools and then sinks; but sinking air heats up and rises and so . . . I quit).  Likewise, the types of weather situations most meteorologists enjoy are counterintuitive, like the fact that I get excited about weather that could potentially kill me yet am bored to death by weather that is easy to forecast and pleasant to enjoy.  And the later, my friends, is what we have in store this afternoon.

Today's forecast is as easy as (insert dirty joke here).  No major fronts or anything interesting to speak of.  The jet stream is almost completely level, running straight from coast to coast over southern Canada.  This will allow warm air to build up across almost the entire US, with the exception of the Pacific NW through Saturday.

We are in for an absolutely beautiful day here in NY.  Low to mid 80s with relatively low humidities and clear skies should make today a great day for just about anything (except maybe storm chasing).  A high pressure system over Savannah, GA will build in later on today and tonight and that will push warm air into the NE tomorrow and Friday.  

Tomorrow, a shortwave system approaches from the west and gives us a good chance for showers/t-storms, some of which could be severe, but with the jet stream so far to our north they will probably be smaller isolated storms.  Unstable, humid air will be the story for Thursday and Friday.  Friday, we get another shortwave passing through and it will look like a carbon-copy of tomorrow.  Please shoot me any questions, comments, concerns, praise, criticism, etc.  This pleasant weather is boring me, I may have to leave my computer and go outside.

Today:  Clear and pleasant.  High 85.  Winds W @ 7-12 mph.

Tonight:  Clear.  Evening lows in the upper 70s down to 70 by morning. Winds SW 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and warm, likely afternoon showers and t-storms.  High 86.  Winds W @ 10-13 mph.

Friday: Scattered clouds with afternoon showers and t-storms likely.  High 88.

S-M-R-T

Mother Nature has certainly been doing everything she can to try and stump me these last few days.  There's just one thing I want to say to her:  Good job!  It's about time somebody threw me off for once.  I'm normally so perfect with my forecasts that it's refreshing to know that the environment can still throw me a curve ball when it wants to.  However, I'm afraid today I return to my normal dominance.

The cold front I was discussing yesterday is moving through even as we speak, although you probably won't notice it.  The CF is also bringing some cooler, drier air down with it, which should result in a rather pleasant day or two for us.  There is a slight chance of some afternoon showers but I'm assuming they will be small, short-lived, random ones at best.  Tonight, high pressure builds in from the SW which should keep things generally dry and clear through Wednesday.  Thursday that high pushes warm air into the region and we start to feel those lovely hot/humid conditions that make NYC's summers are so famous.  Highs Thursday could reach 90.  Yum.

Today:  Sunny with a few clouds and a slight chance of an afternoon shower/t-storm.  High 81.  Winds NW @ 12-15 mph.

Tonight:  Clearing.  Evening temps in the mid 70s with a low of 64.  Winds NW @ 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny with a few clouds.  High 85.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Thursday:  Warm and humid.  High 89.  

Soccer Analogies (they're all I know)

Alright, so I guess karma came back to bite me yesterday for my comments on Friday regarding weekend forecasting.  We clearly had showers and t-storms instead of plain old rain.  My bad.  But there were several good things that can be taken from the weekend:  Saturday was beautiful and we had some cool storms yesterday.  Plus, Italy lost in the Euros (sorry Geoff).  I'm sorry but they are to soccer what fog is to weather; boring, ugly, and pretty greasy.

Today, we have the Portugal of weather; a sexy, exhilarating start and then most likely fading out towards the end of the day.  As you can clearly see, and probably feel, we have a lot of moisture in the air.  That will act as the fuel we need to kick off some storms later this morning and then again this afternoon.  A trough moving in from the NW will provide that extra kick (yet another soccer reference) to spawn more storms this afternoon. 

With the good supply of moisture, the daytime heating, and the trough placement, storms could be severe this afternoon.  However, like yesterday, they will probably also be spotty.  Midtown could be sunny while the Bronx and Westchester could have hail, downpours and lightning.  The storms may be a bit more frequent today than yesterday but it looks like a fairly similar event.

Tonight the storms die down in the mid-evening hours and we see some clearing after midnight.  Tomorrow's weather may look similar to today's.  A cold front moves in from the west and we get another opportunity for late afternoon showers and t-storms.  Luckily, after the front passes tomorrow, we should clear up on Wednesday and dry out for a few days.

Today:  Some fog early will burn off by mid/late morning.  Expect an early round of showers/t-storms (noon-1pm) then another round later on in the afternoon/early evening hrs.  Heavy rains and strong storms can be expected.  High 80.  Winds S @ 6-10mph.

Tonight:  Showers/t-storms likely early on, then clearing overnight.  Evening temps in the upper 70s with a low of 69.  Winds W @ 5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Clouds with afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 82.  Winds NW@ 9-13 mph.

Wednesday:  Clear with a few scattered clouds.  High 86.

Stop Whining!

Lately people have been complaining that I do not make weekend forecasts.  I want to say two things: 1) this is free people, what right do you have to complain?  I am providing a service, free of charge and all you can do is say is "Why don't you tell us what Sunday will be like? Meh, I want to know which day is better to go to the park. Wah!"  Gimme a break, jerks.  And 2) shoot, I forgot what my second opinion was after that rant.

I apologize for making all this "slight chance of shower/t-storm" BS.  It's very "Tesch-y" of me.  Unfortunately, I don't have a choice.  Convection is a very random, difficult to predict event, much like the Euro Championships (at least for my pool).  Today we have a similar story. We're starting off with sun and a little haze which should burn off by mid-moring.  Some unstable air will develop later this afternoon, leading to some isolated showers/t-storms.  I think most should stay off to our north and we'll remain dry, but I can't rule out a rogue party crasher.

Tonight the rain, if any, will end pretty early and we begin to see the effects of the Bermudan high which is developing off the coast of SC and GA.  This will funnel warm, humid air up the coast for Saturday.  Slightly above average temps with this scenario, nothing too unbearable though.  Yesterday it looked like Saturday was going to be another convective head-scratcher but it looks more like our air mass should remain relatively stable and we'll stay dry.

Early Sunday a low in the western Carolinas will lumber up through the mid-Atlantic states into New England.  This with the addition of the warm, wet Atlantic air will likely create a rainy Sunday.  NWS is being wishy-washy with their forecast and can't decide between a rain event or a shower/t-storm event.  I expect it to be more of a rain event.  We'll just have to wait and see who's right (wow, this is just like a reality show!)  In any case, expect some precipitation from late Sat night through the evening on Sunday.  So don't complain to me on Monday that you waited until Sunday to have your fun.

Today:  Sunny with a possible isolated shower/t-storm in the afternoon.  High 78.  Winds SW @ 9-11mph.

Tonight:  Possible evening shower then clearing.  Evening lows in the mid 70s down to 65 by morning.  Winds SW to W @ 5 mph.

Saturday:  Sunny and warmer.  High 85.  Winds S @ 10-13 mph.

Saturday Night:  Possible late-evening shower or t-storm.  Low 69.

Sunday:  Rain.  High 77.  

Honest Mistake

I can't believe nobody called me out on not predicting a low temperature this morning.  Shame on you guys.  I'm very disappointed.  Naturally, the low I would have predicted was right on, as was my predicted high yesterday, 73.   Boo-ya!

Canadian low pressure is still in place over Quebec, but most of it's moisture is situated to our north.  With that said, today should be dry and clear.  Nothing too exciting going on, unfortunately.  

Tonight the low begins to push north, but the trough still remains.  We're going to have another shortwave come through the area tomorrow afternoon.  Tomorrow looks like it may be similar to yesterday, although this shortwave will probably arrive a little bit earlier than yesterday's, which may mean less rain since it won't have as much time and ammo to develop.

The weekend looks a little more rough.  We get rid of the low/trough-iness but we get a Bermudan high that will pump warm, humid air into the region.  Saturday should be sunny and warm early with a good possibility of convective storms springing up in the afternoon amidst the warm, wet air.  Sunday may be even worse as another trough moves in from the west and increases the likelihood for a more widespread rain event.  Not my best weekend work.  Lo siento.

Today:  Sunny with a few clouds.  High 75.  Winds SW @ 8-10 mph.

Tonight:  Cloudy.  Evening lows in the low 70s down to 63 by morning.  Winds SW @ 4-6 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny early then clouds and chance for afternoon showers/t-storms.  High 78.  Winds W @ 9-11 mph.

Saturday:  Sun and clouds with afternoon showers and t-storms.  High 87.  Low 67.

Sunday:  Showers and t-storms.  High 79.  Low 69.

Rainbow in da Heights!

Just thought I'd post a picture of the lovely rainbow that popped up over the heights this evening after the rain.  Who says there's nothing pretty in da Heights?!  And maybe if one of you chase after it, you might find the leprechaun and his pot of gold hangin' in the Bronx...  but watch out, those Bronx leprechauns are tough!

B.O.B.N.

One of the reasons meteorologists are so awesome is that we get to ruin people's day and piss everyone off, which happens to be one of my favorite things to do as a meteorologist.  Take today, for instance.  Looks nice right?  Cool, dry, sunny.  Good day shaping up, wouldn't you say? Eghn, wrong! (it's hard to put the "buzzer" sound to words)

Currently, we have a decent-sized upper-level low over French-Canadia that, while it is bringing cooler temps to our region, is also going to be responsible for some unsettled, unruly weather over the next 3 days.  Nothing severe or serious like we've seen the last few weeks (aww shucks) but certainly enough to be annoying, from a weather standpoint.  Today we'll see a shortwave system moving from upstate NY/western PA into our area this afternoon.  Currently it's draped across central NY, making rain from Utica to Buffalo, and moving slowly to the SE.  I'm hoping most of it will pass to our north, but I promise nothing.  My guess is the rain will come through sometime around 2pm and should be more or less outta here by the early evening hrs (7pm?). 

Tonight we get a little bit of clearing that lasts until tomorrow afternoon when we see another shortwave passing through.  Thurs night and Friday look to be carbon copies of the next 24 hrs as well, and then Saturday we get another lovely Bermudan high that will pump warm, moi... excuse me... warm, wet air into the NE.  Not quite as gross as 2 weeks ago, but it will be a return to seasonal temps and higher humidities.

Today:  Sunny then clouds and showers.  High 73.  Winds SW 8-10 mph.

Tonight:  Showers ending early then cloudy.  Winds W 5-9 mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny early then a chance of afternoon showers.  High 74.  Winds W @ 7-9 mph.

Please Read

Another solid day of forecasting by yours truly.  I myself saw two distinct series of showers/t-storms roll through the area yesterday.  One around 4:30 and one around 7:00.  And we had a high of 79, off by only one from my prediction.  I think I should work for Miss Cleo and read people's fortunes.

Today is shaping up to be a swell day.  The slow moving cold front that was responsible for yesterday's rain is finally moving out this afternoon and behind it there should be some cooler, drier air waiting for us.  There is a very slight chance of a shower this afternoon, however, with the cold front still lingering (don't be fooled by my weather icon).  It doesn't have much to work with in the way of moisture like it did yesterday, but if it gets just enough, the other elements like daytime heating and the necessary lifting conditions could be in place for a few convective showers or t-storms.  Personally, I don't think we'll have any but I'm not that sure of it to completely rule it out.  Take an umbrella with, it can't hurt you.  Unless you accidently poke yourself in the eye or something.

After today a low pressure from the Great Lakes will bring us cool and unsettled weather over the next few days.  Lots of unpredictability.  I heart it.

Today:  Clouds mixed with sun.  Slight chance of an afternoon/evening storm.  High 81.  Winds W @ 10-16mph.

Tonight:  Possible early evening shower, then clear.  Evening temps in the low 70s down to 61 by morning.  Winds NW @ 6-8mph.

Tomorrow:  Scattered clouds and cooler.  Chance of an afternoon storm.  High 71.  Winds W @ 8-12mph.

Back in Black

I have returned from yet another midwest wedding to remind everyone that I was off by a total of 2 degrees the entire weekend.   And it looks like my prediction of afternoon/evening showers on Saturday came true as well.  Man, it gets kinda boring being right all the time.  I just wish mother nature could stump me once or twice to add some excitement to my life.  Although I shouldn't speak too soon because she may be throwing me a monkey wrench with today's forecast.

Main issue today looks to be the timing of our precip.  NWS and that chick from CNN are saying sometime after 1pm.  I think it may be a bit later, myself.  A moderate/strong cold front is approaching from the NW from southern Ontario.  Showers and thunderstorms are already developing along the southern edge of the front in NE WV.  In our area, we have some foggy-haziness that should burn off somewhat in the next few hrs.  Interior NJ and PA already have clearing which should supply the front with some heating to fire our afternoon storms.  I think they'll probably start up in the city around 3-4pm.  There will probably be two rounds of storms, looking at current radar and satellite pics.  The 2nd round will probably go off later in the evening, I'm thinking 7 or later.  There is a likely chance we could see another squall line storm develop, with lightning and damaging winds like last Wed.  Hopefully this time I'll get to see it.

Today:  Morning haze with a bit of midday sun, then showers and t-storms this afternoon and evening.  Good possibility for severe storms.  High 79.  Winds S @ 8-12mph.

Tonight:  Evening showers and t-storms ending after midnight.  Evening lows in the upper 70s down to 66 by morning.  Winds W @ 5-8mph.

Tomorrow:  Clouds and sun.  Maybe, maybe an afternoon storm.  High 79.  Strong NW winds @ 13-17mph.

Wednesday:  Mixture of clouds and sun, but cooler.  High 74. 

Homage

Reid Bryson spoke at one of my senior seminars. It was probably the most interesting seminar I had. He discovered the jet stream while in the army in WWII. While giving his talk he said several times, "You have to believe me because everyone else who was there is dead." Good article.

Midwest Holiday

Ok everybody, I'm giving you an extended, yet abridged forecast.  High pressure has now assumed a Bush-like control on our weather (no tax refunds though).  This scenario looks to stay in place until Friday when a weak warm front moves in from the west.  Not much moisture involved so we should stay dry.  Once this WF passes, however, warm humid conditions return to the Big Apple.  A cold front will slide in Saturday evening and this looks to be our next best chance of rain.  Until then, pretty pleasant conditions actually.  I, however, will be off to the midwest to chase storms . . . and by that I mean go to yet another wedding.  Perhaps no one will see me sneak out once the bar opens up?

Today:  Clear.  High 83.  Winds N @ 8-10mph.

Tonight: Clear with a few clouds in the evening hours.  Low 64.  Winds N@ 4-6mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny.  High 82.  Winds E @4-8mph.

Saturday: Sunny with afternoon/evening showers and t-storms.  High 89.

Sunday:  Sunny and cooler.  High 84.

Samcast will be on hiatus until Sunday.  Until then, look here for your weather.

Speaking of UFOs...

Caption: An altocumulus standing lenticularis cloud appears to hover over a pile of rock south of Tower.  [Bob King/News Tribune]

Strange that today, not only does Katie post that she saw crazy lights coming from Jersey last night during the thunderstorm, but I also get an email from Sam's friend Adam with this bazar picture attached...  Perhaps these extraterrestrials are smarter than we give them credit for- they come during crazy weather so all that any crazy phenomena (lights, sounds, probing) can just be blamed on the weather man.  Or maybe the weather men are just extraterrestrials- that might explain a lot.

Foiled Again by the MTA

Last night, when the storms came through, your fearless meteorologist was out in the field, right in the thick of it.  And by that I mean I was trapped on a misguided E train and had no idea of what was going on.  I shouldn't say had no idea what was going on.  I predicted (to my wife who can back me up on this) a passing squall line about 10 min before it happened.  So we got in the subway and then were trapped there for about an hour and I missed the whole thing.  Always a bride's maid. . . luckily, several of my friends gave me their eyewitness accounts of the storm (not nearly as cool as seeing it in person, no offense guys).  I felt like Rob Marciano.

Today's weather won't be nearly as exciting but won't be nearly as miserable as it's been recently either.  The cold front that came through last night and almost instantly (temps dropped 19 degrees in less than an hour at La Guardia) killed our heat wave as moved offshore.  High pressure is now building in from the upper Midwest and should remain in place until Friday.  Another cold front will drop down tonight from Canada but has essentially no moisture to work with, so no stormy goodness.  Without the moisture, the humidity will also go down making today and tonight much more comfortable even though temperatures will still be in the upper 80s.  We continue to cool off tomorrow with lower dewpoints and a more northerly flow.  The next chance for rain won't be until Saturday when a warm front pushes in from the west.  This will also make for a more humid, sticky weekend but not nearly as bad as the one we just had.  But even if it is gross out, I'll be in Wisconsin drinking beer and eating cheese.  Jealous?

Today:  Sunny and clear.  Less humid.  High 87.  Winds W @ 8mph.

Tonight:  Clear and breezy.  Evening lows in the upper 70s down to 68 by morning.  Winds N @ 8-12mph.

Tomorrow.  Sunny.  High 85.  Winds N/NE @ 8-10mph.

Dennis Rodman and the Inuits

It's clear that I was a bit overzealous with yesterday's high temp.  But as a meteorologist, living in the NE, you rarely get to post a triple digit high.  I didn't want to post it, but I still wanted to get noticed for doing so.  I kind of relate it to leading the NBA in technical fouls; not something to be proud of, but still extremely noteworthy, and somebody's gotta do it.

Since yesterday's high only reached 96 I'm going to be a bit more cautious with today's forecast.  This will be our last really hot day; the strong high off the Carolina coast is still forcing hot humid air into the NE.  This high will move further out to sea as a cold front moves in for us tonight.   

With all this hot, humid air, the atmosphere is going to be very unstable.  Saturday and Sunday both brought us some convective storms, which were basically just isolated, random showers and t-storms.  Today, with the continued unstable air coupled with the addition of the cold front, the chance for widespread and organized storms is much more likely.  The SPC has put out a slight/moderate risk for severe t-storms later today.  Score!

The passage of this cold front also means more seasonable conditions are on the way.  Once the cold front passes another ridge of high pressure will build, this one from the west, which will bring us cooler, drier winds from the north instead of those hot, humid ones from the south.  Temperatures and dewpoints will be much lower, especially during the overnight hours.  It will still be warm but it will feel like a cool Eskimo kiss compared to what we've deal with recently.  Looks like dry, cooler weather for the rest of the week as well; a warm front will move in from the west on Friday, which will be our next chance for any wet weather.

Today:  Hot and humid, a decent chance for an afternoon shower or t-storm.  High 96.  Winds S-SW 8-12mph.

Tonight: Showers and t-storms in the evening hours (my guess is around 6-8pm) tapering off after midnight.  Evening temps in the upper 80s down to 70 by morning.  Winds NW @ 9-12mph.

Tomorrow: Clear and a bit cooler.  High 86.  Winds W @ 8-9mph.

Wednesday:  Clear.  High 84.

Schwetty Weather

As a native Minnesotan, I neither like nor am I capable of handling sustained hot and humid temperatures.  With that said, it does bring me great pleasure to say we may be breaking the triple-digit mark today.  Woo-hoo record highs!  Hey, I need to find some bit of pleasure in all of this hot, grossness.

Today looks to be the hottest day yet with temperatures hovering around 100 degrees.  Humidity levels with be high once again as well.  With the humid, unstable air we could very well see some afternoon showers/t-storms again like we've seen the past couple of days.  During the day however, it will be hot.  The NWS has issued an Excessive Heat Warning with heat indices around 105.  W/SW winds will keep temperatures along LI should be a bit cooler but it will still be quite warm.  Lows tonight will be lucky to get out of the 80s.  Much of the same tomorrow, unfortunately, maybe not quite as hot as today but still well into the 90s.  Relief may come Wednesday in the form of a cold front from the upper midwest but with our strong high pressure system (the one making things so pleasant) it may take longer to move eastward, so we may not see relief until Thursday.  Keep cool my babies!

Today:  Sunny and hot.  High 100.  Winds W@9-12mph

Tonight: A few clouds and very warm.  Low 79.  Winds @ 5-7mph

Tomorrow: Sunny and hot again.  High 97.  Winds SW @ 9-13mph.

Repent!

Well folks, I hope your affairs are in order and you are all well-hydrated because today will be our last day of cool, pleasant weather.  Clouds will cover the skies for the early part of the day.  We have a large high-pressure system centered east of the Carolinas which will begin to advect warm, wet Atlantic air up the coast into our region.  That should start late this afternoon/evening; look for dewpoints to increase and our temps won't budge until morning, and even then they don't go down much.

Saturday looks to be quite warm with the southerly flow in full-effect as temps climb into the low 90s.  However, for those taking in the Belmont Stakes, LI should be a little bit cooler with the southerly ocean breeze keeping temps in the mid/upper 80s.

Sunday looks to be probably the hottest day of the weekend with the high pressure ridge centered over NY.  Temps Sun will be in the mid 90s going back down to the low 90s on Monday.  We don't get a reprieve from the hotness until Tuesday.  

A few final tidbits on this weekends forecast:  This air will not only be quite hot but humid as well, so nighttime temps won't fall much.  Saturday's and Sunday's low temps could very well be in the upper 70s (77), for a LOW.  This hot humid air also means a rogue afternoon t-storm may be possible.  I think Sunday is the most likely day.  So be aware that one could pop up during the afternoon.  Other than that, stay cool and classy New York.

Today: Cloudy and cool with some afternoon sun.  High 74. Winds S @ 8-10mph.

Tonight:  Scattered clouds.  Evening temps in the low 70s, down to 69 by morning.  Winds S @ 5mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and warm.  High 94.  Winds S/SW @ 8-12mph.

Tomorrow Night: Clear and muggy:  Low 76. 

Sunday:  Hot and humid:  High 97.  

Crappizza!

Remember a few years ago when Domino's came out with those new delivery bags that were supposed to keep your pizzas piping hot for an entire fortnight?  Those bags were called the "Heat Wave", which happens to be the story for this forecast. (Didn't you like how I combined "crap" and "pizza" into one word? It sounds very Italian-y)  And while our heat wave will not last 14 days, it will go on for about 4 or 5 (but there's no cool, medieval term for 4-5 days, as far as I know).

Low pressure is moving off the coast even as we speak and is taking most of the leftover rain with it.  Dry day today, but should remain overcast until at least late afternoon, looking at the satellite pic.  There may be a few breaks here and there but overall not a good day for tanning.  Clouds dominate the skies for tonight as well, and there's a slight chance of an isolated shower, but I think most of the precip will stay north and west of NYC.

Tomorrow the winds turn to the south and that starts up the heat engine.  That southerly flow will pump warm, humid air into our region (n0 M-word, Katie).  High pressure looks to be in control until at least Monday maybe Tuesday with this flow pattern, meaning that temps will be hot and muggy and New Yorkers will be even more pleasant than usual.

Today: Cloudy with a few rays of sunshine in the afternoon.  High 73.  Winds E @ 7-8mph.

Tonight: Overcast skies with a very slight possibility of showers towards morning.  Evening lows in the upper 60s down to 61 by morning.  Light SE winds.

Tomorrow: Clouds with some afternoon sun.  High 76. Winds S @ 7-10mph.

Weekend Outlook: HOT HOT HOT! Temperatures in the low 90s thru Monday.  Slight chances for isolated afternoon t-storms Sunday and Monday.

Truant! Truant!

In typical Sam-fashion, my forecast is coming in an hour late.  Sue me.

The warm front that was meandering it's way through the mid-Atlantic states has now become a stationary front.  Because of this and upper-level dynamics (or lack thereof) the chance for rain has gone down a bit.  As you can clearly see by looking outside there is a lot of moisture in the air, but there isn't enough power in the atmosphere to get it up high enough where it can generate storms.  However, that doesn't mean there won't be any hot, storm-action.  

Currently, there are storms popping up in WVa and SW PA.  These storms should follow the front which looks to move east through MD and southern NJ.  We may certainly see some of its effects, but the bulk will go off to the south of us.  As of now, it looks like the most likely chance for rain won't be until after 10pm and will probably end by morning.

Tomorrow the rain should clear out but we'll still have some lingering clouds, especially in the morning.  There is a slight chance of a random afternoon shower or t-storm.  The instability and humidity may still be high enough tomorrow afternoon to generate a few isolated storms.  It's not uber-likely, but it is something to be aware of.  After that, high pressure will reclaim the northeast and we should be in store for a hot, dry couple of days.  Most likely throughout the weekend.  Wow, a weekend forecast on a Wednesday.  That should make up for my lateness.

Today:  Cloudy and hazy with an afternoon shower.  High 70.  Winds E @ 8-10mph.

Tonight:  Probable evening shower with showers and t-storms overnight.  Evening lows in the upper 60s down to 64 by morning.  Winds NE @ 7-10mph.

Tomorrow:  Clouds through early afternoon then clearing.  Isolated afternoon showers.  High 75.  Winds E @ 6-8mph.

Weather On the 9:34s

I'm going to be making a more detailed forecast in an hour or so, but for those who check the weather early I wanted to give you a brief rundown for today.

Right now we have two areas of low pressure.  A weak one which is currently over LI and a slightly stronger one that is over Chicago.  The LI low, which brought us the early morning rain is moving offshore and the Chicago low will track east this afternoon.  It looks to be moving along a warm front that will bring us another, if not several, rounds of showers and maybe a t-storm this afternoon.  The rain has stopped for now but will resume later today.  Check back round 11:3o for a more accurate, up to date forecast.  

A Quickie

Once again the folks in Texas are screwing me up.  But I can certainly give you an accurate breakdown without them.

Another clear day today for the most part.  The high pressure blob that has been sitting on us for the last few days is moving off the coast today.  That means that the winds will switch around to the south/southwest and funnel in some warm, moist, southern air.  Later this afternoon a cold front drops down out of Quebec and stops about midway across upstate NY.  The combination of southerly flow, an oncoming (but not passing) cold front and a sunny day will drive temperatures up into the mid 80s, with higher humidities as well.  There is a bit of a chance for a random afternoon shower but it will most likely be found north of us.  Expect one more clear, warm day.

Tonight an advancing low pressure from the Great Lakes will bring in some showers and t-storms for early Wednesday morning.  Showers and t-storms are likely throughout Wednesday, but probably nothing severe as not all the elements are in place for a severe outbreak; but some nice stormies none the less.  Low pressure moves out Wednesday night followed by slightly cooler, drier air.  Notice I say "slightly".  No major changes.  That clearing should remain throughout the weekend as temperatures climb back into the mid/upper 80s for the weekend.

Today:  Sunny.  High 87.  Southwest winds @ 6-13mph.

Tonight:  Clouds move in.  Rain likely by morning.  Evening lows in the upper 70s; and only down to 64 by morning.  South winds @ 8-10mph.

Tomorrow:  Periods of rain and thunderstorms.  High 74. South winds @12-15mph.

Messin' with Texas... A&M

Unfortunately, for the last 12+ hrs the Texas A&M weather interface page has been down.  Which means my temperatures today may be well off.  Although, they were off by 5 degrees yesterday so I guess I can't do much worse, right?

Currently, we are in the last stages of a trough making its way off-shore.  High pressure builds in today from Ohio and PA.  This will give us another warm, pleasant day across the region.  With the high pressure moving in and little cloud-cover, we can expect temperatures to be about the same as yesterday, however there is a bit of sinking air (in the vertical direction) to our north, which may keep highs a degree or two less than yesterday, but it will be marginal.  The coasts will remain a bit cooler, if you happen to be playing Bueller and taking the day off.  And if you are, you suck.

Tonight we'll have clear skies again, and we'll have a bit of cooling with no clouds and little humidity.  Lows should be around 60.  Tomorrow, high pressure remains in control and the winds turn SW, which will pump even warmer temperatures and some higher humidities into NYC.  Early Wednesday morning a cold front passes through the area giving us a chance for some rain on Wednesday.

Today:  Sunny and clear.  High 82.  Winds NW @ 8-10mph.

Tonight:  Clear.  Evening temps in the mid 70s down to 61 by morning.

Tomorrow:  Sunny and warm.  High 86. Winds SW @ 9-12 mph.

Outlook: A likely dose of showers and t-storms for Wednesday; Thursday clears up which should hold through the weekend.  Long enough for Big Brown to win the Triple Crown.  Hey, that rhymes.  

Working For The Weekend

In our atmosphere, there are many mechanisms that can contribute to how our weather acts.  In these situations, as a meteorologist, sometimes we have to B.S.  Oops, I mean sometimes we have to convey to our viewers/listeners/readers that the atmosphere is a complicated place that is very dynamical and very hard to predict.  This is one of those times.  Let's start with the good news first.

Today is going to be another great day in NYC.  Sunny skies and warm temperatures will again dominate today's plot.  By afternoon some moisture will be moving into our region but this will only result in some playful afternoon cumulus clouds and an increase in humidity.  In general, a good day.

Late tonight things change as a warm front passes up through NJ and into upstate NY.  This could provide us with some showers for Saturday morning cartoon watching.  As we go further into Saturday the situation doesn't get much better.  Late Saturday evening a corresponding cold front will slide east through western PA and NY and could provide us with another round of rainy goodness.  The real problem with Saturday's forecast, however, revolves around what falls in between these two frontal passages.

There will be a lot of moist, unstable air above us Saturday afternoon.  We may see several rounds of showers and t-storms throughout the day.  Some of these may even be severe with the possibility of hail and strong winds within certain storms.  You may want to take a look at the radar before venturing out.

Saturday night we see showers likely early on with the passing cold front. Later Saturday evening the skies clear and that extends into Sunday, giving us a nice start to next week.  If you want to hang out outside, I suggest Sunday.  Unless you're like me and have a sick fascination with destructive, possibly lethal forces of nature.

Today:  Sunny with afternoon clouds.  High 80.  Winds S @ 8-11mph.

Tonight:  Overcast skies with a chance of showers towards morning.  Evening lows in the mid 70s and only going down to 65 by morning.  Winds S @ 10mph.

Tomorrow:  Cloudy with showers early.  Showers and t-storms resume later on in the day with a possibility for strong storms.  High 76.  Winds SW @ 12-18mph.

Sunday: Clear and sunny.  High 77.

Happy Birthday, Mom!!!

Some of you know her, some of you don't, (she is like the Katherine Jackson of meteorologists) but it is my mom's birthday today.  Feel free to post her a happy birthday if you wish.

As your meteorological bartender, I get to say that we have another day of beautiful weather on tap.  Clear, sunny skies will dominate today's picture as a ridge of high pressure is well in control.  Still a little breezy with winds out of the west around 10-14mph.  But the temperatures should be even warmer today than yesterday.  My predicted high of 67 was off by 1 yesterday (d'oh), but I was closer than my comrades.  Today highs should be in the low-mid 70s, right around average for May 29th, my mom's birthday.

Unfortunately, for my mom, Duluth will not be so nice.  They will see a very likely chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that will extend into early tomorrow morning and highs in the low 60s (63 is my guess).  But that will just give her more of an excuse to stay inside and party.

Today: Sunny and clear.  High 74.  W winds @ 8-14mph.

Tonight: Clear.  Evening lows in the upper 60s down to 59 by morning. NW winds @ 5mph.

Tomorrow:  Sunny w/ clouds in the afternoon.  High 79.

Another Day, Another Super-Accurate Forecast

Our old pal, High Pressure, returns to the area today bringing back the sun and some more seasonable temperatures.  The average high for this time of year, if anyone is wondering, is about 72, and I'm afraid we won't get anywhere near that today.  The backside of yesterday's cold front, which we are in, has some cooler air and a decent north/northwesterly breeze.  This will keep temperatures and humidities down.  Dewpoints today will only be in the 3os, so it will be quite dry.  This will also help to drop temperatures tonight.  If you're out take a sweater or jacket; once the sun goes down it may get chilly.  Evening temps around 60 with morning lows in the low 50s.

Tomorrow, Mother Nature turns down her A/C and temperatures go back into the mid 70s; with more of the same for Friday.  We won't see our next solid chance of rain until Friday night and Saturday when a low pressure system moves in from the Great Lakes.  Until then, expect clear skies and warm temps each day.

Today: Sunny with a few clouds.  High 67.  Winds N/NW @ 8-12mph

Tonight:  Clear, evening lows around 60, down to 51 by morning. Winds NW @ 4-8mph

Tomorrow:  Clear and sunny.  High 74.

"Lightning is one of natures number one killers"

So I thought I'd check out the warnings on the potentially cool weather about to ravage the area- unfortunately for those who love a good storm, it looks to my untrained eye that the worst will indeed pass just north of us- though we should get some good stuff in the next hour or so, but the National Weather Service does feel the need to give us this warning:

PEOPLE IN THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.  LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN. 

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.  REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

You always have to be so dramatic Weather Service!  Anyway, in case any of you would like to read the full special weather statement for NYC, it's right here.  Best suspend any plans of playing with any long metal rods in open fields until it's past.

Storm Trooper

It appears as though I was a little off on my rain prediction, seeing as we already have some light rain falling.  Hopefully I can get the rest of the day right.

A cold front will slide down from the northwest today and give us a good chance for some showers and t-storms.  As in most meteorological cases, timing is everything.  Currently, the front is running through northern OH and PA and extends through north-central NY and curves up through the Adirondacks and up through northern Vermont.  It is scheduled to pass through SE NY early this evening, but I think may arrive earlier.  If it does arrive earlier the chances for t-storms and anything fun will be greatly diminished.

Currently we have some cloud cover and light showers over our area, but behind this we have an area of clear skies.  Behind the clearing is the actual front, where there is very little action now but come this afternoon could turn into some attractive storms.  The Storm Prediction Center in Normal, OK has put out a "Slight Chance Risk" of severe storms that includes NYC.  The danger we face will be strong winds and possibly small hail within any developing t-storms.  Only a small chance, but something to keep an eye on.  The clear skies ahead of the front and the time it passes will be the keys to developing any real strong storms.  If the front hits before, say 3pm, the chances of it being severe is much lower.  However, if the front doesn't pass until closer to, say 6pm, the chances of those storms being severe is much higher.  My instincts say it will pass earlier, but my heart wants some sexy weather.  I'm torn.

Today: Clouds early, then some sun, storms this afternoon (most likely from 4-7pm).  Humid.  High 83.  Winds SW switching to NW this afternoon @ 11-15mph.

Tonight:  Showers and t-storms early evening, then clearing.  Low 55. Winds N @ 12-16mph.

Tomorrow: Sunny and cooler.  High 67.  

Bee-utiful

What a beautiful weekend and beautifully forecasted by yours truly.  I was off by a total of only 3 degrees all weekend!  That includes Saturday morning's low too, which was perfect.  Yesterday, my predicted high of 77 was also perfect and Saturday's high was apparently off by one (I had 70 and Central Park recorded a high of 71), but in the hourly readings the temperature never read 71, so it must have only been 71 for a brief time.  Either way I think I rocked the proverbial casba on this one.

Today looks to be another gorgeous day as we are still under that ridge of high pressure.  Tomorrow afternoon the cold front that produced tornadoes in Iowa and Minnesota makes it's way into our area.  Don't worry, nothing too crazy for us as the upper level dynamics necessary for producing severe weather should stay to our north.  However, we will most likely see some showers and thunderstorms by tomorrow afternoon and evening.  I will check it again tonight and let you know if anything changes.  Until then, enjoy the last day of this beautiful weekend.

Today: Sunny skies and breezy with a few high clouds in the afternoon.  High 81. Winds S @14-18mph.

Tonight: Clouds and breezy.  Evening lows in the mid 70s, with morning low near 65. Winds SW @ 9-15mph.

Tomorrow: Clouds with some sun early, then cloudy with showers and t-storms in the afternoon.  High 80.

Also: if you want to check how I do, I posted a link on the sidebar where you can verify the accuracy of my forecasts.  Enjoy!

Mmmm . . . weather

They say that Memorial Day is the unofficial start of summer.  More importantly, it's the official start of barbecue season, which is perhaps my favorite eating season of the year, narrowly beating out chili season.  And it is with great pride and pleasure to announce that this start to the barbecue season should be nearly ideal.

That pesky low pressure system is finally making its way out to sea and, according to the barometer in my living room, high pressure is beginning to build.  Hence the relatively clear skies.  The air behind this low is still a bit on the cool side, so even though it is moving out and skies are clearing, temperatures will still be a bit on the cool side, although they'll certainly be warmer than the past few days.  It will also remain a bit breezy today as we are in between two pressure systems, and the contrast between the two will create a decent northwesterly breeze.

The weather continues to get nicer as we go more into the weekend.  Tomorrow will be a near-clone of today and Sunday looks to be even better as skies remain clear and temperatures rise into the upper 70s.  Monday also looks warm but there may be a chance of rain or a t-storm.  For now, I'd say do your grilling on Sunday (which is what I plan to do) rather than Monday.  But if Monday turns out nice and you want to bbq that day as well, I'm not going to stop you.

Today:  Some clouds, otherwise sunny and warmer.  High 71. Winds NW @10-15mph.

Tonight: Clear. Evening temps in the low 60s.  Morning low of 53.

Tomorrow:  Clear and sunny.  High 70.

Sunday: Sunny and warm.  High 77.

Monday: Sunny with a chance of late afternoon rain/t-storms.  High 79.

A beautiful day in da Bronx Boo!

Continuing my series of cool weather photos, here's a photo of my recent trip to the New York Botanical Gardens:

As Sam's forecast predicted, Saturday was a beautiful day for wandering around the New York Botanical Gardens in the Bronx.  If you can make it through the less than stellar neighborhood to get there and deal with the questionable subway service (give yourself lots of extra time), it really is a beautiful place to visit on a sunny day.  The lilacs are in season and even some of the fragrant roses are already in bloom!  Plus, a fabulous exhibit starting this Saturday will feature sculpture of Henry Moore.  The great visit made up for the fact that my horse ("Behindatthebar" as you would recall from a previous comment) dropped out of the Preakness Stakes at the last minute.  I'll just have to save my betting for the June 7th Belmont Stakes... pictures of that to come.

One More Day

Alright, this forecast is going to be short but sweet, so listen up:

The Canadian low that's been plaguing us for the last week is finally going to move out, which means we have one more day of icky weather to endure ("icky" is an official meteorological term).  Yet another shortwave will be passing through this afternoon, bringing with it some scattered showers.  The best chance looks like it will be from the morning (as I believe it is raining now) until the early afternoon hours.  Skies will remain cloudy and there will be a strong northwesterly wind keeping temps on the cool side.

The low moves off the coast tomorrow and high pressure pushes in from the west.  This will give us sunshine and much warmer temperatures for the entirety of the Memorial Day weekend. I will give you a more precise weekend forecast tomorrow and let you know just how many bbqs you can attend.

Today: Cloudy with scattered showers until early afternoon.  High 61.  Winds NW @ 13-15mph

Tonight: Cloudy early then clearing towards morning.  Low 51.

Tomorrow: Sunny and warmer.  High 72.

Eureka!

So I've finally discovered the real culprit for all this unsettled weather.  It's fleet week!  I don't know about you guys, but seeing hundreds and thousands of dudes dressed up in little Popeye outfits makes me very uneasy and unsettled.  So I'm sure they must be having a similar effect on Mother Nature.  In all seriousness though, I'm sure their collective body heat is creating some sort of localized low pressure vortex.  

That upper-level low pressure system over Canada is still hanging around and today we have another shortwave passing through.  Try to think of these shortwaves as spokes on a wagon wheel that continue to rotate about the center.  On the bright side, literally, today should be a bit clearer than yesterday, which will help bring temperatures up a bit.  With the shortwave passing through, however, we can expect to see a late afternoon/early evening shower or even t-storm as the atmosphere is just a little unstable.  My guess is anything that will pop up will do so between 4-8pm.  Even though it looks nice now, bring your umbrella, just in case.

Tomorrow looks to be similar to yesterday with more clouds and cooler temperatures.  But once we're through with Thursday things start to look up.  That low over Canada finally moves out over the North Atlantic on Friday and by Saturday afternoon high pressure will be in control and it looks to be warm and dry through Monday.  

Today: Sunny with some passing clouds. Chance of a late-afternoon shower or t-storm.  High: 67. Winds W-SW at 8-13mph.

Tonight: Slight chance of evening shower with temps in the mid 60s. Otherwise cloudy with a low of 53 by morning.

Tomorrow:  Overcast, chance of afternoon showers.  High 61.

Who'll Stop the Rain?

I think I know now why most people dislike meteorologists.  We are the proverbial bearers of bad news.  And today is no different.

Another shortwave of low pressure will be impacting us today.  This one is a bit more substantial than the others we've encountered over the last 4 days.  It looks now like most of it will pass south of us, but it's still likely we'll see showers today.  Looking at the satellite pics, I assume the rain will start here sometime after 11:00am and continue until about 6-8pm tonight.  I apologize to my roller hockey friends, but the conditions don't look great.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side.  With the rain and the clouds today we will probably not even reach 60.  Same for tonight as lows will be in the low 50s from the evening until the morning.  I'd also like to add that the forecaster at the NWS was complaining this morning that the computer models led him to predict temperatures that were much too warm yesterday.  I was off by 2 degrees while they were off by 7.  Amateurs.

This pattern, unfortunately, is going to persist for the next couple of days.  But, don't fear.  It looks like high pressure should be building in for the Memorial Day weekend, giving us dry weather and warmer temperatures.

Today: Rain, beginning in the morning and continuing into the evening hours.  High 57. Winds N @ 6-9mph.

Tonight: Rain ending by early evening, cloudy and cool.  Evening temps in the low 50s down to 49 by morning.

Cool Weather

So far, I've only gotten one response from my call for cool weather photos- it comes from my Dad (thanks Dad!) and it is a "cool" one!  It's a picture of our house in Wisconsin after a particularly heavy snowfall this winter.  Those of you who didn't get the chance to visit the midwest this winter would be amazed at the sheer volume of snow they got.  Great year for skiing.  Bad year for shoveling.

Incedently, if any of you find this photo appealing, my hometown of Stevens Point just got voted in the top 10 places to move to by Relocate America! Go Point!

I'm learnding!!

What a perfect weekend . . . forecast.  My forecast highs of 57 and 72 were perfect for Friday and Saturday according to the Central Park weather station.  Sunday's high was 4 off, but not bad for 3 days in advance.  Apparently there was no rain reported on Saturday.  Around 9:00 I was outside in midtown and definitely got rained on.  Can anyone else claim they got rained on or at least saw rain Saturday? Either way, I feel like a deserve a pat on the back.  Pat pat.  There.  I feel special now.

On to issues of the present:  I know today's forecast is coming in a little late.  The computer models get updated at 10:30 eastern so I was waiting to see what they'd tell me.  Unfortunately, they told me squat.  The same, unsettled pattern we saw over the weekend will remain and now let me attempt to tell you why.

Deep low pressure, centered over SE Quebec has decided to set up shop over the NE for a few days.  This low is "cutoff"up to 150mb; cutoff means that winds are completely encircling it.  This happens often near the surface, but rarely at 150mb, which is more or less the penthouse suite of the troposphere (where all the sexy weather happens).  When lows get this deep they tend to act as a roadblock for the rest of the atmosphere's flow, causing surface weather to become a bit stagnant.  In our case, a mix of showers and clear weather that's hard to predict.

The unsettled part is due to a series of "shortwaves" passing through the "longwave" - our big low.  The shortwaves are like little kinks in the longwave that develop when a big trough builds up and slows down like it's doing now.  The resulting shortwaves, in this case, don't have enough support or fuel to develop into any sort of major storm, but they can make scattered rain showers here and there.  

It's also important to note that it will be fairly windy over the next few days.  That deep low will create a strong pressure gradient, forcing surface winds in towards it.  They will hopefully die down a little tomorrow as the low slowly moves northeast, but will still be noticeable.  

With that said, and looking at my current radar screen, I'm going to tell you to expect a few afternoon showers today and an even better chance tomorrow.  The showers shouldn't be too intense; no downpours or thunder or anything fun like that, just enough to be a nuisance.  Highs cool both days with temperatures in the low 60s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Today: Scattered, light showers.  High 61.  W winds 15-20mph, with gusts +20.

Tonight: Clear.  Low 47. W winds 10-15mph.

Tomorrow: Showers.  High 60.

Give Me $$$

This will probably be my most extensive forecast to date.  You may want to grab a coffee before reading this.

Short Term:

Friday is looking bleak at this point.  I am afraid I may have been wrong this morning by forecasting this low to pass south.  Currently (11:40pm Thurs) the front is stalled from southern PA through LI and the low is sitting somewhere over NW Kentucky/SE Ohio/SW WV.  The low is going to follow that front line out to sea, which will take from now until late Fri Night/early Sat morning.  Should be some decent rain when you wake up tomorrow, while the heaviest appears to occur in the late morn/early afternoon hours.  Rain will most likely end by midnight here in the city.  Good night to take shelter at a house party (wink wink).  Temps cool with highs only reaching upper 50s/low 60s.

Weekend:

This main low should completely pass by Saturday morning (in time for cartoons) and most of Saturday should turn out dry.  There is a chance of a few random pop-up showers and t-storms later in the afternoon and the early evening, but I think the day looks promising.  The possibility of rogue storms continues through Sunday with lots of mini-disturbances and unstable air.  In my opinion, Saturday looks to be a nicer day than Sunday.  Highs both days will be around 70 with evening temps in the upper 60s and lows near 50 both days.  Apparently, my audience is mostly grad students, who stay indoors all week.  On the weekends, they need to know if they can play outside.  Otherwise, they may get Rickets.  You're welcome guys!!!

Pimlico:

As a special addition to this weekend's forecast, I've decided to add a city:  Laurel, Md.  Why you say?  The Preakness Stakes, idiot.  So for those of you who like horse racing, or have gambling problems, or both, here you go:

From what I've heard about horse racing, and perhaps a certain friend and his certain veterinarian fiance will correct me, it should be a fast track.  Tomorrow, Maryland will be getting the southern portion of the storm we're getting.  Then things should clear up and be dry for Saturday.  I heard this makes a fast track.  Temps in the low 70s.

Also, there looks to be a fairly stiff SW and/or WSW wind (15+mph).  The track is oriented on a SW to NE axis, meaning there should be a strong tailwind on back stretch and headwind down the home stretch. It could make a difference in what horse you pick.  Except me, I always lose at the track.  But, I do know weather, so someone else can take my advice and (pardon the pun) run with it.  I should totally be getting paid for all this... out of anyone's winnings, at least.

Friday (NYC): Rainy, mostly in the morning.  High 57. Winds NE @ 10mph.

Friday Night: Evening rain, ending around midnight.  Low 50. Winds N @ 9-13mph.

Saturday: Drying out in the morning, possible shower or t-storm late in the afternoon.  High 72.

Sunday: Scattered showers and t-storms. High 70.

Conformist

I've decided to break my usual rules of forecasting and use a phrase I hate using.  This is so far unprecedented and may never happen again, so listen close... today's forecast: 30% chance of rain.

Ewww!  That made me feel so dirty.  Normally I hate when meteorologists say X% chance of rain.  But occasionally it happens where even the best of us, i.e. me, just don't know.  The best chance looks to be this morning before noon.  The radar screen today looks like some sort of Kandinsky speckled artwork.  Little blurbs here and there all over the NE.  Take your umbrella out but there aren't going to be any downpours and it's not going to be any sort of steady rain, if it does at all.  We should even see some sun mixed in throughout the day.

This spottiness is due to a weak cold front moving south out of Canada.  The front doesn't have a ton of support in its upper dynamics or its H2O fuel.  It has enough to create a little precip, but nothing to get too excited about.  The front sort of wears itself out tonight and an attached, strengthening low pushes east for Friday.  This low could possibly make for some decent rain.  The computer models are still disagreeing a bit as to which track the low will take.  Right now most of it looks to move through south Jersey and out into LI, possibly missing us, but it's too early to tell.  The weather for the rest of the weekend looks just as unsure as today and tomorrow with lots of "mini-systems" passing throughout the weekend.  Only time will tell.  Stay tuned!

Today: Scattered, light showers.  Cloudy skies with a few peeks at the sun.  High 71. Winds N @ 6-9mph.

Tonight:  Cloudy.  Evening lows in the upper 60s, down to 53 by morning.

Tomorrow:  Afternoon showers and cooler.  High 57.

The Wife

So now that I've been given the great privilege of actually being a contributor on Sam's awesome blog, I feel like I should actually contribute in some way- that is, besides just putting a way cool hit counter on the bottom of the blog (anyone notice my great little piece of handy-work?), so basically, let me know if there's anything any of you loyal (or disloyal) blog readers would like to have added to make your weather viewing experiences more enjoyable.  Links, questions, pictures, an animated little Sam or Hadley (the cat) running across your screen?  Let me know and I'll see what I can do.

In addition, I'm giving out a call for any cool pictures of weather- I know it might seem kinda "local news" but it'd be cool to see where you guys have been lately and what kind of cool clouds, storms, sunsets, etc. that you've gotten to experience.  Just throw me an email if you have any.  

Cheers!

Temps, temps, temps

Ok, ok so I slept in a little bit today.  I'm sure most of you sleep in until 9 on Saturdays, right?  I know Maggie sure does.  

So once again my temperature forecast was off by at least 3 degrees yesterday.  I feel like if I don't get my stuff together I should have some unusual weather punishment placed on me.  Feel free to submit your ideas!

Today looks to be about the same as yesterday.  A little bit warmer today as the winds will be funneling up warmer air from the south.  Clear skies for most of the day today, a few afternoon clouds could meander on in but it's nothing to worry about.  The dewpoints go up a little bit this afternoon, but still very dry by NYC standards.  Those three factors lead me to believe that temperatures will be up at least 5 degrees warmer today than yesterday.  I'm going with highs in the upper 70s with evening temps in the upper 60s and down to 59 by morning.

The clouds we start seeing this evening will be part of a front that may bring a stray shower on Thursday, but the most likely chance of rain will be Friday as a Canadian low drops down on us and could supply us with a dose of H20.  Enjoy today while it lasts!

Today: Sunny with high of 78. S winds 5-10mph

Tonight: Clouds roll in. Evening temperatures around 69 with morning low of 59.  S winds @5mph.

Sam's Weekend Is Here!

I've noticed that my recent forecasts, while almost spot on in predicting precipitation, have been less than stellar at predicting accurate temperatures.  And seeing that today's precip forecast is about as easy as (insert dirty joke here), I've decided to concentrate this forecast on getting my temperatures right.

While the low that plagued us yesterday has moved off the coast, its remnants will still effect us for the early part of today.  Luckily, this won't be in the form of precipitation, rather in the form of some morning clouds and strong northerly winds that are hanging out on the low's backside.  As the low pushes further off the coast, these clouds should go away and the winds should die down a bit.  This will leave us with clear skies and a light north breeze.  "Abundant sunshine" as the friendly computerized voice on the Weather Channel would say.

High pressure and dry air will take over for the next two days, which happen to also be my days off.  While this means clear skies and warmer temperatures during the day, it also means cool overnight lows.  Dry air, as you probably know, doesn't retain heat very well and once the sun goes down so will the temperatures.  But daytime highs will be back to average today and above average for tomorrow.  Expect highs in the upper 60s today and into the 70s for tomorrow.

This pattern should persist for the next two days.  Our next shot of rain won't be until Thursday, when another low moves through the northeast.  It looks to be tracking north of us right now and the likelihood for precip doesn't look too troubling at the moment.  I will, of course, keep you up to date as the situation progresses.

Today: Sunny and warmer, high 68.  N/NE winds 14-17mph this morning, dying down to 7mph this afternoon.

Tonight: Clear and cool. evening temps in the low/mid 60s down to 54 by morning.  North winds at 4mph.

Tomorrow: Sunny and warm again, high 74.  Winds switch to the S at 6mph.

Fully Rested... Kind of

Now that I've had a decent amount of sleep I can say with a bit more confidence what I theorized earlier.  The Weather Channel and the NWS both anticipate a big storm, which this is, but you can expect the heart of it to pass south.  

The biggest problem with this forecast is determining how long the low takes to move east.  If it goes quickly it won't be too bad; if not, there will be a bit more rain in store for us.  Right now the low is getting "fuel" by sucking in moisture from the ocean.  The longer the low stays over land the more onshore flow we get and the more time our low will have to turn that moist ocean air into rain droplets. (Winds rotate counterclockwise about a low, which happens to be over the D.C. area right now.  If you get out a map and trace a spirally circle outwards from DC you see that after you hit NY you have to pass over a lot of Atlantic Ocean; trace that line back to DC and you have your wind flow.)  If the low moves out over the ocean more quickly, which it seems to be doing, that flow around the low now has to go over land before it reaches NY.  As you can probably guess, air over land is not nearly as moist as the air over water; thus not as much fuel for our SUV of a low.  Once the fuel pump is cut off we should see an end to the rain, my guess is by mid afternoon.

The rain we will get will be overnight and tomorrow morning.  Don't be too surprised if this rain happens to come at us from the SE as it wraps around the low.  When the low does move offshore, the wind will remain our biggest nuisance.  This is a very deep low and since a high pressure area just exited our region, the pressure gradient is going to be very strong.  Big pressure gradient = big winds.  In fact, I just noticed that the NWS has issued a Wind Advisory.  Good day for wind surfing, if you have any idea whatsoever how to windsurf.

Temperatures won't go up much throughout the day.  The winds will be switching to the NE and look for these cold NE winds to keep temperatures low all day. Highs will struggle to get to 50. Ahh, springtime in New York. 

Sorry this forecast was a bit crazy and long-winded.  I hope I didn't go off on too many tangents.

Tomorrow (Monday): Rain showers until the mid-afternoon, then cloudy.  High 47.  Winds SE switching to NE at 20-25mph, gusts could be up to 40mph.

Tomorrow (Monday) night: Cloudy skies turning clear later on and remaining windy.  Evening lows in the mid/upper 40s dropping to 45 by morning.  N winds at 20mph.